Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard</li>
<li>Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list</li>
<li>We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk</li>
</ul>


Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk


Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-lombard-general-insura" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25882:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life (SBILIFE IN)</a>, based on statistical mean reversion analysis.</li>
<li>
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.</li>
</ul>



Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.

Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.

Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.


ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.</li>
<li>
Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.</li>
<li>This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.

Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June's decision, regardless of the outcome.


Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).</li>
<li>Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

India

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Victor Galliano

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Update on the pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard and SBI Life shows the trade has reached its exit signal with a profit, highlighting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

​Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Victor Galliano

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Update on the pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard and SBI Life shows the trade has reached its exit signal with a profit, highlighting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

On Friday, 10:00 am IST the RBI will release its monetary policy statement - live broadcast on the RBI's youtube channel. Both the Nifty 50 and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Our proprietary scorecard places Baroda, Canara, and UBI on the buy list, replacing Bandhan and UBI; Kotak Mahindra is no longer on the sell list....

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...