Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KPIT raised its full-year FY24 revenue growth guidance to 37%+ from 27-30% earlier, led by a strong Q2FY24 performance. EBITDA margin guidance has been also raised to 20%+ from 19-20%.</li>
<li>Despite wage hike impact of 250bp, EBITDA margin came in at 20%, at the upper end of the 19-20% FY24 guidance. Operating leverage and realization improvement helped offset the impact.</li>
<li>With the strong Q2 performance, we are upgrading our FY24 PAT estimate to INR 580cr+ vs INR 550cr+ earlier and FY25 PAT of INR 730cr+ vs INR 700cr+ earlier.</li>
</ul>


KPIT raised its full-year FY24 revenue growth guidance to 37%+ from 27-30% earlier, led by a strong Q2FY24 performance. EBITDA margin guidance has been also raised to 20%+ from 19-20%.
Despite wage hike impact of 250bp, EBITDA margin came in at 20%, at the upper end of the 19-20% FY24 guidance. Operating leverage and realization improvement helped offset the impact.
With the strong Q2 performance, we are upgrading our FY24 PAT estimate to INR 580cr+ vs INR 550cr+ earlier and FY25 PAT of INR 730cr+ vs INR 700cr+ earlier.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kpit-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35189:1" rel="noopener">KPIT Technologies ("KPIT")</a> reported decent growth despite challenging macroeconomic environment in the automotive OEM segment. Q3FY25 revenue grew 17.4% YoY and 2.0% QoQ in constant currency (CC) terms.</li>
<li>Led by improved efficiency and revenue mix, EBITDA margin came in stronger than expected at 21.1%. This led KPIT to raise its FY25 EBITDA guidance to 21%+ from 20.5%+.</li>
<li>Deal engagement has been strong. TCV came in at $236mm vs typical run-rate of $150mm+. Deal pipeline is also healthy and the management is expecting substantial closures by H1FY26.</li>
</ul>



KPIT Technologies ("KPIT") reported decent growth despite challenging macroeconomic environment in the automotive OEM segment. Q3FY25 revenue grew 17.4% YoY and 2.0% QoQ in constant currency (CC) terms.
Led by improved efficiency and revenue mix, EBITDA margin came in stronger than expected at 21.1%. This led KPIT to raise its FY25 EBITDA guidance to 21%+ from 20.5%+.
Deal engagement has been strong. TCV came in at $236mm vs typical run-rate of $150mm+. Deal pipeline is also healthy and the management is expecting substantial closures by H1FY26.


KPIT Tech: Strong Q3Y25 Despite Challenging Environment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Robust Growth Across Verticals: The management has highlighted robust and broad-based growth across various verticals, supported by a solid deal pipeline and enhanced client engagement.</li><li>Europe led growth, followed by the US and Asia, with strong traction in Powertrain, Connected Vehicles, and SDVs (SoftwareDefined Vehicles).</li><li>Total Contract Value (TCV) Performance: Total Contract Value (TCV) for Q3FY25 stood at $236 Mn, with significant contributions from Europe and the US, reflecting higher deal conversion rates and increased client confidence in KPIT’s capabilities.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Robust Growth Across Verticals: The management has highlighted robust and broad-based growth across various verticals, supported by a solid deal pipeline and enhanced client engagement.Europe led growth, followed by the US and Asia, with strong traction in Powertrain, Connected Vehicles, and SDVs (SoftwareDefined Vehicles).Total Contract Value (TCV) Performance: Total Contract Value (TCV) for Q3FY25 stood at $236 Mn, with significant contributions from Europe and the US, reflecting higher deal conversion rates and increased client confidence in KPIT’s capabilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

KPIT Technologies Ltd - Resilient Performance in Action

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kpit-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35189:1" rel="noopener">KPIT Technologies ("KPIT")</a> reported a decent Q2FY25 with revenue growth of 20.1% YoY in constant currency (CC) terms. Growth came largely from Asia - Japan, Korea and India.</li>
<li>EBITDA margin has been steady at 20.5%+ and grew 27.7% YoY. This is despite the salary increments and one-time ESOP costs, which impacted the margin adversely by about 270bp.</li>
<li>KPIT has guided that FY25 revenue growth could be at the lower end of the guidance, however, profit margin is projected to be on the higher side led by offshoring.</li>
</ul>



KPIT Technologies ("KPIT") reported a decent Q2FY25 with revenue growth of 20.1% YoY in constant currency (CC) terms. Growth came largely from Asia - Japan, Korea and India.
EBITDA margin has been steady at 20.5%+ and grew 27.7% YoY. This is despite the salary increments and one-time ESOP costs, which impacted the margin adversely by about 270bp.
KPIT has guided that FY25 revenue growth could be at the lower end of the guidance, however, profit margin is projected to be on the higher side led by offshoring.


KPIT Tech: Steady Q2FY25 Although Near-Term Outlook Is Uncertain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

India

KPIT Technologies Limited operates as a technology company. The Company specializes in embedded software, artificial intelligence, and digital solutions. KPIT Technologies serves automobile industry worldwide.

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KPIT Technologies (KPITTECH IN)

KPIT: Raises Its Full-Year FY24 Guidance

Post the strong Q2FY24 performance, KPIT has upgraded its FY24 revenue growth guidance to 37%+ YoY vs 27-30% earlier. EBITDA margin guidance has...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

KPIT Tech: Strong Q3Y25 Despite Challenging Environment

KPIT reported strong growth and an upbeat demand outlook despite challenging macroeconomic environment in the automotive sector. At the current...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

KPIT Technologies Ltd - Resilient Performance in Action

The management has highlighted robust and broad-based growth across various verticals, supported by a solid deal pipeline and enhanced client...

Axis Direct

KPIT Tech: Steady Q2FY25 Although Near-Term Outlook Is Uncertain

KPIT reported a steady Q2. With European OEMs struggling, the near-term outlook is uncertain. However, this appears temporary and in due course, it...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We currently forecast 31 migrations for the AMFI December reclassification. Many IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward...

Brian Freitas

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