Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>We previously discussed our thoughts on Krafton’s valuation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/krafton-ipo-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krafton IPO - Valuation | Smartkarma</a>. Since then, Krafton has lowered its asking range from KRW458,00-557,000 to KRW400,000-498,000 while reducing the number of new share offered from 7,030,000 to 5,624,000. They didn’t reduce the number of existing shares offered though, no. Somewhat fitting perhaps for a company that is over-reliant on a game whose battlefield you enter by parachute. They should colour the parachutes golden if they manage to pull this off.</p>

We previously discussed our thoughts on Krafton’s valuation in Krafton IPO - Valuation | Smartkarma. Since then, Krafton has lowered its asking range from KRW458,00-557,000 to KRW400,000-498,000 while reducing the number of new share offered from 7,030,000 to 5,624,000. They didn’t reduce the number of existing shares offered though, no. Somewhat fitting perhaps for a company that is over-reliant on a game whose battlefield you enter by parachute. They should colour the parachutes golden if they manage to pull this off.

<p>Krafton’s IPO looks extremely richly priced. The peer group selection by bankers is in our opinion highly dubious neglecting to account for Krafton’s current one trick pony status. We are happy to correct this error for them by including mobile gaming one tricks such as Mixi and Gungho below. You’re welcome bankers!</p>

Krafton’s IPO looks extremely richly priced. The peer group selection by bankers is in our opinion highly dubious neglecting to account for Krafton’s current one trick pony status. We are happy to correct this error for them by including mobile gaming one tricks such as Mixi and Gungho below. You’re welcome bankers!

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>One noteworthy aspect is SK Square's strategic move towards gradually shifting its investment portfolio from platform businesses to companies within the semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Given SK's aim to acquire a 1-2% stake as an anchor investor in ARM, selling the Krafton stake is necessary to secure sufficient funds for the potential ARM investment.</li>
<li>We may consider positioning to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for selecting anchor investors in August for the ARM listing.</li>
</ul>


One noteworthy aspect is SK Square's strategic move towards gradually shifting its investment portfolio from platform businesses to companies within the semiconductor supply chain.
Given SK's aim to acquire a 1-2% stake as an anchor investor in ARM, selling the Krafton stake is necessary to secure sufficient funds for the potential ARM investment.
We may consider positioning to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for selecting anchor investors in August for the ARM listing.


Seizing Shorting Opportunities on Krafton as ARM Seeks Anchor Investors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.</li>
<li>The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.</li>
<li>AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ150 Index, CSI300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.
The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.
AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We recently visited some start-up game companies in China and concluded that the Chinese gaming market has entered a matured period of competition for existing users;</li>
<li>Tencent's games remain relatively stable, but information about new RMB 10bn level blockbusters is still unknown. New shooting games continue to appear, putting pressure on existing survival shooting games;</li>
<li>We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that shooting games will face.</li>
</ul>


We recently visited some start-up game companies in China and concluded that the Chinese gaming market has entered a matured period of competition for existing users;
Tencent's games remain relatively stable, but information about new RMB 10bn level blockbusters is still unknown. New shooting games continue to appear, putting pressure on existing survival shooting games;
We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that shooting games will face.


Tencent/SEA/Unity/Krafton: More Shooting Games Are Emerging, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

South Korea

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

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Krafton (259960 KS)

Krafton IPO – This Should Be Pulled

In case you are looking for ideas that are bearish China but perhaps not directly in the firing line if positioning gets too stretched to the...

Mio Kato

Krafton IPO - Valuation

Breaking new lows. Still structurally challenged. Still liked by the sell side. Do read the last three bullet points and note that sell side target...

Mio Kato

Seizing Shorting Opportunities on Krafton as ARM Seeks Anchor Investors

This post examines shorting situation to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for...

Sanghyun Park

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Tencent/SEA/Unity/Krafton: More Shooting Games Are Emerging, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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