Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns</li>
<li>Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios
We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns
Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants


Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group on our weighted scorecard methodology, based on multiple valuation parameters, as well as balance sheet and return metrics</li>
<li>Krung Thai is driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering close to double-digit ROE with a premium capital ratio for a PBV ratio of under 0.7x</li>
<li>The recent Trump tariff induced correction in the Krung Thai share price is a buying opportunity; it has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group on our weighted scorecard methodology, based on multiple valuation parameters, as well as balance sheet and return metrics
Krung Thai is driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering close to double-digit ROE with a premium capital ratio for a PBV ratio of under 0.7x
The recent Trump tariff induced correction in the Krung Thai share price is a buying opportunity; it has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx


Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers</li>
<li>Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx


Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

<ul>
<li>The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx</li>
<li>On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers</li>
<li>Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling</li>
</ul>


The PBV and PE valuations for TMB Thanachart, which are close to those of SCBx, seem stretched; TMB Thanachart’s return trends are well below those of SCBx
On the weighted metrics applied to our proprietary scorecard, TMB Thanachart is the new bottom marker in the scorecard among its Thai bank peers
Krung Thai was our core buy-rated Thai bank; we downgrade it to a hold, as its valuation discounts to its own history and its peer SCBx are no longer compelling


Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krung-thai-bank-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:298:1" rel="noopener">Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB)</a>.</li>
<li>He also holds stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring Capital (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC World Public (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a>.
</li>
<li>All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls. </li>
</ul>


Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana is the second largest shareholder in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), behind Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB).
He also holds stakes in XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB).

All four companies went limit down on the 23rd June. And again the next day. Both KTC and TPS say nothing has fundamentally changed. The cause? Margin calls. 


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Thailand

Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited is a state-owned commercial bank offering various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage loans, as well as provident fund management, foreign exchange, and international trade financing services.  The Bank is majority owned by the Financial Institutions Development Fund.

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Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB)

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out

Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group based on our weighted scorecard; it is driving its solid returns higher, with close to double...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

We emphasize Krung Thai as our core value pick among Thai banks; its strong capital ratios, healthy credit quality and premium returns warrant its...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB). Then buy some more. Shares are liquid. XSpring Capital (XPG TB) and BEC World Public (BEC TB) are clear buys, but both...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

​Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out

Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group based on our weighted scorecard; it is driving its solid returns higher, with close to double...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

We emphasize Krung Thai as our core value pick among Thai banks; its strong capital ratios, healthy credit quality and premium returns warrant its...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks 2Q25; TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Re-Rating at Risk, Krung Thai (SET:KTB) Is Now a Hold

​Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...

Victor Galliano

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call

Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB). Then buy some more. Shares are liquid. XSpring Capital (XPG TB) and BEC World Public (BEC TB) are clear buys, but both...

David Blennerhassett

Krung Thai is our preferred pick for its value for healthy return, solid capital ratio with Kasikornbank continuing to deliver on improving...

Valuation concerns arise for TMB Thanachart, bottom rated in our Thai banks scorecard, as its returns lag behind those of SCBx; Krung Thai...