Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late last month, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring Capital (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC World Public (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice. </li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/193869/Krungthai%20Card%20(KTC%20TB):%20Buying%20Opportunity%20After%20Margin%20Call.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call</a>, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month. </li>
</ul>


Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice. 
As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls. 
Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month. 


Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viol-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41010:1" rel="noopener">VIOL (335890 KS)</a>, whose major shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dms-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2132:1" rel="noopener">DMS (068790 KS)</a>, faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco (200 HK)</a>'s 11.9% gain on the 26th June - on serious volume - was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.</li>
</ul>



Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.

Melco (200 HK)'s 11.9% gain on the 26th June - on serious volume - was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

<ul>
<li>Given the size of Mandi - relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a> Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. </li>
</ul>


Given the size of Mandi - relative to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.

CATL (3750 HK)  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.
While Grindr (GRND US) Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>As first discussed back in May (see <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>Pledging in those shares - in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex - have been static, to down, in the month of October.</li>
<li>Recent big-ish moves were seen in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-city-cement-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:346:1" rel="noopener">Siam City Cement (SCCC TB)</a> (up), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-expressway-and-metro-68c0c1b3-af0c-4380-a380-f3dc7ba5d5ac" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22849:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB)</a> (up); <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nakhonluang-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26954:1" rel="noopener">Next Capital (NCAP TB)</a> (down) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1" rel="noopener">Banpu Public (BANPU TB)</a> (down).</li>
</ul>


As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
Pledging in those shares - in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex - have been static, to down, in the month of October.
Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).


Thailand

Krungthai Card Public Company Limited provides credit and debit card services, as well as other professional services.  The Company offers both VISA and MasterCard associated cards, and covers areas such as recurring payments in addition to traditional credit and debit card related services.

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Krungthai Card (KTC TB)