Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12M forward fair value of Bt30.75, based on a 10.6% required return.</li><li>KTC reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.2bn, up 16.7% YoY and 4.6% QoQ, broadly in line with our and consensus estimates.</li><li>Asset quality remained manageable. Provisions declined 13.0% YoY (+3% QoQ), translating to a credit cost of 5.1% (-78 bps YoY, +13 bps QoQ).</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a 12M forward fair value of Bt30.75, based on a 10.6% required return.KTC reported 1Q26 net profit of Bt2.2bn, up 16.7% YoY and 4.6% QoQ, broadly in line with our and consensus estimates.Asset quality remained manageable. Provisions declined 13.0% YoY (+3% QoQ), translating to a credit cost of 5.1% (-78 bps YoY, +13 bps QoQ).

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): In-Line Earnings; Low Loan Growth, Quality Focus

<ul><li>We maintain Neutral with a revised 12M fair value (FV) of Bt30.75 (from Bt30.00), based on a required return of 10.6% (from 10.5%) and updated assumptions under our house view, using a risk-free rate of 1.83% and MRP of 4.67% (from 1.23% and 5.61%).</li><li>The new FV implies ~6% upside, with valuation primarily driven by changes in the risk-free rate.</li><li>With a low D/E of 1.5x, reflecting appropriate deleveraging alongside modest loan growth of 1–2%, we expect continued high dividend payouts (60% payout ratio).</li></ul>

We maintain Neutral with a revised 12M fair value (FV) of Bt30.75 (from Bt30.00), based on a required return of 10.6% (from 10.5%) and updated assumptions under our house view, using a risk-free rate of 1.83% and MRP of 4.67% (from 1.23% and 5.61%).The new FV implies ~6% upside, with valuation primarily driven by changes in the risk-free rate.With a low D/E of 1.5x, reflecting appropriate deleveraging alongside modest loan growth of 1–2%, we expect continued high dividend payouts (60% payout ratio).

Krungthai Card Plc. (KTC): Tax Normalization Boosts Earnings - Neutral (12M Fwd Fair Value Bt30.75)

<ul><li>We downgrade to Underperform (from Outperform) with a new 12M forward FV of Bt30.00 (from Bt30.25), based on a 10.5% required return (from 10.9%), reflecting revised ERP assumptions and an updated forecast range.</li><li>The share price has surged 37% since our last report (January 15, 2025), leaving valuations stretched. Tactical upside now appears very limited (vs. very limited downside previously).</li><li>Amid quality-driven growth and a strong balance sheet (solid asset quality; D/E ~1.5x), the company should be able to sustain a high dividend payout, having declared Bt1.77 per share for 2025 (XD: April 10), implying a 2025 dividend yield of 5.2%.</li></ul>

We downgrade to Underperform (from Outperform) with a new 12M forward FV of Bt30.00 (from Bt30.25), based on a 10.5% required return (from 10.9%), reflecting revised ERP assumptions and an updated forecast range.The share price has surged 37% since our last report (January 15, 2025), leaving valuations stretched. Tactical upside now appears very limited (vs. very limited downside previously).Amid quality-driven growth and a strong balance sheet (solid asset quality; D/E ~1.5x), the company should be able to sustain a high dividend payout, having declared Bt1.77 per share for 2025 (XD: April 10), implying a 2025 dividend yield of 5.2%.

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): Quality-Driven Growth; A Strong Balance Sheet

<ul><li>KTC reported 4Q25 NP of Bt2.1bn (+9.9% YoY, +6.3% QoQ), beating our and consensus estimates by ~8%, driven by lower-than-expected provisions and operating expenses.</li><li>Provisions declined (–24.3% YoY, –6.8% QoQ), lowering credit cost to 4.9% (–161 bps YoY, –47 bps QoQ). Asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio at 1.79% (–16 bps YoY, –6 bps QoQ) and coverage remaining high at 425%.</li><li>4Q25 earnings beat expectations, clearly reflecting strong asset quality management, while offering a dividend yield of around 5.4%.</li></ul>

KTC reported 4Q25 NP of Bt2.1bn (+9.9% YoY, +6.3% QoQ), beating our and consensus estimates by ~8%, driven by lower-than-expected provisions and operating expenses.Provisions declined (–24.3% YoY, –6.8% QoQ), lowering credit cost to 4.9% (–161 bps YoY, –47 bps QoQ). Asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio at 1.79% (–16 bps YoY, –6 bps QoQ) and coverage remaining high at 425%.4Q25 earnings beat expectations, clearly reflecting strong asset quality management, while offering a dividend yield of around 5.4%.

Krungthai Card Plc. (KTC): 4Q25 Earnings Beat Forecasts; Solid Asset Quality

<ul><li>We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) as the share price has fallen ~16% since Oct 20, 2025, opening ~20% upside to our revised FV and supporting a tactical upgrade to Very limited downside (from Neutral).</li><li>We cut FV to Bt30.25 (from Bt34.00) on a higher 10.9% required return (from 9.2%), reflecting updated macro assumptions (Rf 1.23%, MRP 5.69% vs. 1.04% / 5.74%).</li><li>Long-term growth remains below peers, with net profit expected to grow at a 6% CAGR over 2025–27E.</li></ul>

We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) as the share price has fallen ~16% since Oct 20, 2025, opening ~20% upside to our revised FV and supporting a tactical upgrade to Very limited downside (from Neutral).We cut FV to Bt30.25 (from Bt34.00) on a higher 10.9% required return (from 9.2%), reflecting updated macro assumptions (Rf 1.23%, MRP 5.69% vs. 1.04% / 5.74%).Long-term growth remains below peers, with net profit expected to grow at a 6% CAGR over 2025–27E.

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): 4Q25E Profit Outlook Remains Muted

Thailand

Krungthai Card Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based financial services company primarily engaged in credit card and personal loan businesses. The company offers a variety of credit cards, merchant acquiring services, payment services, and personal loan products including auto title loans, provincial retail lending, and e-money services. It was founded in Bangkok, Thailand, in 1996.

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Krungthai Card (KTC TB)

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): In-Line Earnings; Low Loan Growth, Quality Focus

Asset quality remained manageable. Provisions declined 13.0% YoY (+3% QoQ), translating to a credit cost of 5.1% (-78 bps YoY, +13 bps QoQ).

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai Card Plc. (KTC): Tax Normalization Boosts Earnings - Neutral (12M Fwd Fair Value Bt30.75)

We maintain Neutral with a revised 12M fair value (FV) of Bt30.75 (from Bt30.00), based on a required return of 10.6% (from 10.5%) and updated...

Krungthai XSpring

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): Quality-Driven Growth; A Strong Balance Sheet

The share price has surged 37% since our last report (January 15, 2025), leaving valuations stretched. Tactical upside now appears very limited...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai Card Plc. (KTC): 4Q25 Earnings Beat Forecasts; Solid Asset Quality

KTC reported 4Q25 NP of Bt2.1bn (+9.9% YoY, +6.3% QoQ), beating our and consensus estimates by ~8%, driven by lower-than-expected provisions and...

Krungthai XSpring

KRUNGTHAI CARD Plc. (KTC): 4Q25E Profit Outlook Remains Muted

We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) as the share price has fallen ~16% since Oct 20, 2025, opening ~20% upside to our revised FV...

Krungthai XSpring

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