Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.</li>
<li>Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09</li>
<li>Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.
Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09
Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from Korea</li><li>US core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflation</li><li>Fed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from KoreaUS core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflationFed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.</li>
<li>USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.</li>
<li>The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.</li>
</ul>


I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.
USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.
The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.


Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the world</li><li>Unlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstances</li><li>Dollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the worldUnlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstancesDollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.</li><li>Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.</li><li>The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.</li></ul>

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

Inflation Moderation?

Key economic data releases from China, the US, and Europe are closely monitored for signals on inflation and growth, while the Fed is expected to...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Happy Sunday from a sunny Copenhagen. I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I...

Steno Research

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

The strong dollar is not a major concern for the US or the Federal Reserve, but could pose challenges for the rest of the world, making coordinated...

At Any Rate

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)