FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

There is no clear way to assess the probability of the outcome of this meeting, so uncertainty may keep asset markets in check as it approaches.  It will be regarded as hugely important since the Chinese economy is already slowing down, led by weaker export markets, and this has spilled over to other Asian exporters and potentially to global growth.  The US administration has plans to further expand its tariffs if no progress is made on a deal before year-end.We rate the potential outcomes: No Meaningful Progress, Hopes Raised, and an Imminent Deal.  And discuss the outcomes for the dollar and global markets.

There is no clear way to assess the probability of the outcome of this meeting, so uncertainty may keep asset markets in check as it approaches.  It will be regarded as hugely important since the Chinese economy is already slowing down, led by weaker export markets, and this has spilled over to other Asian exporters and potentially to global growth.  The US administration has plans to further expand its tariffs if no progress is made on a deal before year-end.We rate the potential outcomes: No Meaningful Progress, Hopes Raised, and an Imminent Deal.  And discuss the outcomes for the dollar and global markets.

The Dollar and the Meeting Between Trump and Xi

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have maintained and stepped up long USD positioning in Asia where we are seeing this domino spill over into the SGD and KRW (fresh macro breakout signal).USD/SGD chart denotes a higher momentum move toward 1.37 once it clears 1.3550 (minor rest first) which represents the medium term pivot resistance. We link STI pressures to the SGD as the STI tests the…

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have maintained and stepped up long USD positioning in Asia where we are seeing this domino spill over into the SGD and KRW (fresh macro breakout signal).USD/SGD chart denotes a higher momentum move toward 1.37 once it clears 1.3550 (minor rest first) which represents the medium term pivot resistance. We link STI pressures to the SGD as the STI tests the…

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

<ul>
<li>South Korea economic data has shown strong numbers, with an expected GDP of 3% and an inflation reaching 2% its target level, that may lead the Central bank to remain in a slight hiking cycle. However, tech companies will need to stabilize.</li>
<li>South Korea monetary policy also tends to follow FED rates decisions as their economies are strongly related. KRW yields have started a quite secular rising trend since July 2016, with a long period of range between December 2016 and June 2017, with a similar…</li>
</ul>


South Korea economic data has shown strong numbers, with an expected GDP of 3% and an inflation reaching 2% its target level, that may lead the Central bank to remain in a slight hiking cycle. However, tech companies will need to stabilize.
South Korea monetary policy also tends to follow FED rates decisions as their economies are strongly related. KRW yields have started a quite secular rising trend since July 2016, with a long period of range between December 2016 and June 2017, with a similar…


South Korea Midterm Yields Expected to Rise

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

The Dollar and the Meeting Between Trump and Xi

There is no clear way to assess the probability of the outcome of this meeting, so uncertainty may keep asset markets in check as it approaches. ...

Greg Gibbs

Broader USD Strength in Asia

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have...

Thomas Schroeder

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods. These capital flows are tending to...

Greg Gibbs

South Korea Midterm Yields Expected to Rise

South Korea economic data has shown strong numbers, with an expected GDP of 3% and an inflation reaching 2% its target level, that may lead the...

Guillaume Coutant

Trump Is a Dead-Weight on the USD

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely...

Greg Gibbs

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