Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Korea's Kospi 200 has formed dual bull wedge patterns that set the stage for a rally. Korea has drifted lower since early January in a corrective manner (lacks sell momentum) and the USD/KRW is now at key resistance right when we turned to selling the DXY near 92.50 (tactically).Bull wedge formations are of a high conviction. SEC also has a bull wedge due to break higher. Korea is a prime rotation candidate (after seeing the STI and KLSE pop higher).

Korea's Kospi 200 has formed dual bull wedge patterns that set the stage for a rally. Korea has drifted lower since early January in a corrective manner (lacks sell momentum) and the USD/KRW is now at key resistance right when we turned to selling the DXY near 92.50 (tactically).Bull wedge formations are of a high conviction. SEC also has a bull wedge due to break higher. Korea is a prime rotation candidate (after seeing the STI and KLSE pop higher).

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Earlier this month a note titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-pain-and-the-gain-in-equities-and-fx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47142" rel="noopener">The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX</a> was shared on SmartKarma trying to highlight the short term risks in these markets. In that note it was concluded that one should “look out for opportunities to re-engage in equity markets anywhere between 5%-10% below current levels. Similarly expect signals to short the USD again over the weeks ahead.”
As we now appear to be in the middle of this correction down in many equity indices, the following note attempts to highlight key support zones for major indices around the world in preparation for re-engaging in markets for a longer lasting and more underlying bull trend.

Earlier this month a note titled The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX was shared on SmartKarma trying to highlight the short term risks in these markets. In that note it was concluded that one should “look out for opportunities to re-engage in equity markets anywhere between 5%-10% below current levels. Similarly expect signals to short the USD again over the weeks ahead.”
As we now appear to be in the middle of this correction down in many equity indices, the following note attempts to highlight key support zones for major indices around the world in preparation for re-engaging in markets for a longer lasting and more underlying bull trend. 

Where to Prepare for the 'Gain' in Equities

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis.

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis. 

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Korea Bull Rotation Bet

Korea's Kospi 200 has formed dual bull wedge patterns that set the stage for a rally. Korea has drifted lower in a corrective manner and the USD...

Thomas Schroeder

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

USD is a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar will shift gears (more bullish) after a...

Thomas Schroeder

Where to Prepare for the 'Gain' in Equities

As we correct down in many equity indices, this note attempts to identify levels where markets are likely to be supported

Shyam Devani

The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX

New year celebrations are over and there are bumps along the road for Equity and USD trends - beware we are going over one now.

Shyam Devani

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