Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn bullish on Kubota. Macro indicators point to stabilization </li>
<li>Management guidance for 2023 surprised the market, but we think it is realistic</li>
<li>We think that quarterly results will be a catalyst to convince investors that profitability is improving</li>
</ul>


We turn bullish on Kubota. Macro indicators point to stabilization 
Management guidance for 2023 surprised the market, but we think it is realistic
We think that quarterly results will be a catalyst to convince investors that profitability is improving


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red for 2nd week; Short yields rise again last week as hot Macro/Fedspeak drive inflation narrative; GM sets sights on Tesla; MSFT AI gets ..well Emotional !</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.15; Expect little from Japan today with US off for President's Day;  Stealth Immigration as JP loosens up..barely;Deere 2023 outlook Negative Kubota</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Kubota +15% from the bottom but comments from Deere +7.5% on Small Tractors not supportive.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red for 2nd week; Short yields rise again last week as hot Macro/Fedspeak drive inflation narrative; GM sets sights on Tesla; MSFT AI gets ..well Emotional !
JAPAN. NKY Futs Flat vs Cash; USDJPY 134.15; Expect little from Japan today with US off for President's Day;  Stealth Immigration as JP loosens up..barely;Deere 2023 outlook Negative Kubota
DAILY NUGGET.  Kubota +15% from the bottom but comments from Deere +7.5% on Small Tractors not supportive.


Good Morning Japan | Equities See Red as Yields Rise; MSFT AI Goes Wild! Tesla in GM's EV Crosshairs

<ul>
<li>
<strong> Good Morning Japan: </strong> We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan.<strong> FOLLOW US to keep abreast!</strong>
</li>
<li>OVERNIGHT.  Trump is back on Twitter ! Sentiment mixed on Fed Pivot -bulls still in charge - market underweight equities; Things not as bad in TECH; Thanksgiving =consumer stock volatility</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY to open flat; Yen stable;  PM Kishida in danger of the sack ? Not yet; Inflation approaching BOJ's 2% tgt - still need wages to rise</li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!

OVERNIGHT.  Trump is back on Twitter ! Sentiment mixed on Fed Pivot -bulls still in charge - market underweight equities; Things not as bad in TECH; Thanksgiving =consumer stock volatility
JAPAN. NKY to open flat; Yen stable;  PM Kishida in danger of the sack ? Not yet; Inflation approaching BOJ's 2% tgt - still need wages to rise


Good Morning Japan | Shifting Sentiments but Bullish Price Action

Japan

KUBOTA CORPORATION manufactures industrial machinery, farm machinery, and fluid piping systems.  The Company's products include ductile iron pipes, engines, tractors, combine harvesters, reaper binders, rice planters, and excavators.  Kubota also produces forged iron products, housing equipment, and environmental control plants.

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Kubota Corp (6326 JP)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Kubota (6326) | Signs of Stability

We turn bullish on Kubota's stock price. We do not share the market's view that FY23 guidance is optimistic. We think inventory restock, improved...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Equities See Red as Yields Rise; MSFT AI Goes Wild! Tesla in GM's EV Crosshairs

US Equitie down again as Inflation narrative takes root; MSFT AI goes wild; Expect little from Japan with US President's Day; JP Stealth...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Shifting Sentiments but Bullish Price Action

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

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