Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway, Trina Solar, Xinjiang Daqo, TCL Zhonghuan, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway, Trina Solar, Xinjiang Daqo, TCL Zhonghuan, Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong.


CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 21.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought tech and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Kweichow Moutai, Midea, appliances and renewables.</li>
<li>Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 21.9bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND bought tech and sold everything else, especially consumer names. Kweichow Moutai, Midea, appliances and renewables.
Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 14 June 2024): Large Tech Buying, Large Consumer Selling

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Yunnan Aluminium Co Ltd A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 12 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> and 50 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX)</a> in June. Most changes were expected.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.</li>
</ul>


There are 12 changes for the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) and 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) in June. Most changes were expected.
There are a lot of stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. The round-trip trade in June is estimated to be US$5bn.
The adds have outperformed the deletes for both indices but the return profile of a long adds/ short deletes trade for the CSI500 Index is a lot smoother.


CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.3bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought utilities, renewables, and semiconductors, and sold Kweichow Moutai, Midea, Bk Jiangsu, and Wuliangye Yibin.</li>
<li>Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.3bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought utilities, renewables, and semiconductors, and sold Kweichow Moutai, Midea, Bk Jiangsu, and Wuliangye Yibin.
Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024): Large Renewables Buying Drive Small Net Buying

China Merchants Expressway Net / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

China

Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd. offers comprehensive Internet value-added services. The Company focuses on social network interactive and online game fields. Kunlun Tech also provides localized translation outsourcing and agency advertising services.

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Kunlun Tech (300418 CH)

CSI 300 Earning Revision Analysis (May): Cosco Shipping, Longi Green, Tongwei, China Railway

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for May 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Cosco Shipping (601919 CH), Longi Green (601012 CH), Tongwei (600438...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 14 June 2024): Large Tech Buying, Large Consumer Selling

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND flows this past 4-day week were heavily to the sell side. Consumer Staples/Discretionary were HUGE net sells. Tech was...

Travis Lundy

CSI300/CSI500 Index Rebalance: Big Flows and US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

The CSI300/CSI500 indices rebalance at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the inclusions to the CSI300 index have outperformed the deletes by...

Brian Freitas

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024): Large Renewables Buying Drive Small Net Buying

NORTHBOUND saw net buying this week. Large caps saw net selling but semiconductor names see ongoing buying. I expect semicaps will continue to see...

Travis Lundy

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

There could be 11 changes for the CSI300 in June with multiple days of ADV to trade on most names. The potential deletes have bounced recently but...

Brian Freitas

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