'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/736/original/2020-09-18_06-09-24.png?1600376978" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159736"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/737/original/2020-09-18_06-10-21.png?1600377043" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159737"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p>Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Thursday's announcements is home centre Alleanza (3546 JP) (formerly Daiyu-LIC) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryobi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7600:1" rel="noopener">Ryobi (5851 JP)</a>.  </p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>DAILY STATS - Only one company of the eleven announcements made yesterday has a negative score. All save the lone negative scorer, Ryobi, have a domestic focus.</strong></p></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Thursday's announcements is home centre Alleanza (3546 JP) (formerly Daiyu-LIC) and Ryobi (5851 JP).  
DAILY STATS - Only one company of the eleven announcements made yesterday has a negative score. All save the lone negative scorer, Ryobi, have a domestic focus.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​​17 - Kusuri No Aoki, Alleanza, and Poor Old Ryobi

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/055/original/2020-07-03_06-20-43.png?1593724862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SCRAMBLED EGGS</strong> - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-2.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.2ppt</li>
</ul>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsSCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the DETAIL section below.DAILY STATS
10 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-2.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt

 5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>The drugstore sector has been the fastest growing retail sector after e-commerce in the last decade, boosted by the popularity of Japanese toiletry and cosmetics brands among tourists and the push for market share by leading players.</p><p>Drugstores already account for 40% of cosmetics sales and their share of other key categories is growing, even in food, with some chains already selling enough food to qualify as top 20 supermarkets (in 2017, 26.2% of drugstore sales came from food).</p><p>Future profit growth will be determined by prescription services, food and M&amp;A, with all of the leading firms racing to build capacity.</p>

The drugstore sector has been the fastest growing retail sector after e-commerce in the last decade, boosted by the popularity of Japanese toiletry and cosmetics brands among tourists and the push for market share by leading players.Drugstores already account for 40% of cosmetics sales and their share of other key categories is growing, even in food, with some chains already selling enough food to qualify as top 20 supermarkets (in 2017, 26.2% of drugstore sales came from food).Future profit growth will be determined by prescription services, food and M&amp;A, with all of the leading firms racing to build capacity.

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>APATHY STRIKES AGAIN</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/686/original/2018-09-23_17-11-57.png?1537690346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE APATHY INDICATOR - </strong>Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/690/original/2018-09-23_17-44-03.png?1537692262" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64690"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BREAKOUT</strong> - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/701/original/2018-09-05_19-59-32.png?1537698981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64701"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>GAIJIN WRONGFOOTED</strong> - As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> noted on 2nd September - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-redux-foreign-investor-flows-still-matter-and-they-are-still-cyclical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23654">Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical</a>, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-seasonality-sell-in-july-and-say-goodbye-please-come-back-on-culture-day" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23682">Japan: Seasonality</a>, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/704/original/2018-09-23_20-08-06.png?1537700901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64704"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS</strong> - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  </p><p><strong>CAVEATS</strong> - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/705/original/2018-09-23_20-19-16.png?1537701582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64705"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/707/original/2018-09-23_20-34-21.png?1537702506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64707"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OUTLOOK</strong> - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.</p><p><strong>SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS</strong> - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in <strong>Energy</strong> and <strong>Telecoms</strong> offsetting 'losses' from underweights in<strong> Utilities</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>, <strong>Real Estate</strong> and <strong>Autos</strong> and overweights in <strong>Information Technology</strong> and <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>. </p><p><strong>COMPANIES</strong> - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1">Nissan Chemical (4021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1496" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko (4004 JP)</a>.</p>

APATHY STRIKES AGAINSource: Japan AnalyticsTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.Source: Japan AnalyticsGAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As Travis Lundy noted on 2nd September - Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in Japan: Seasonality, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.Source: Japan AnalyticsCHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on Kikkoman (2801 JP), Nissan Chemical (4021 JP) and Showa Denko (4004 JP).

<p><strong>Much has been made of gradually rising wages in Japan, and this is indeed good news after 20 years of stagnation and negative growth. But while some of this is feeding into the consumer economy, making some retailers worthy targets for investors, many households remain jittery, and a lot of the new income is being squirrelled away into savings instead.</strong></p>
<p><strong>The following is a detailed analysis of consumption patterns in Japan, but here are the key highlights:</strong></p>
<ul class="">
<li>Average monthly incomes rose 2% in 2017 in real terms, the highest since 2010, after hitting a low in 2011, where incomes were down more than 4.5% in nominal terms compared to 2008.</li>
<li>Incomes will rise again in 2018 and 2019.</li>
<li>As a result, both nominal and real spending rose in 2017, up 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. This was the first increase in spending since 2013.</li>
<li>Real expenditure levels are still 3% below the peak reached in 2009.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
</li>
<li>This is despite a sharp rise in the cost of fresh food and some other essentials, emphasising just how much households have been cutting back on non-essentials, notably clothing which is down nearly 12% in five years, although some of this loss of value is price deflation. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
</li>
<li>We expect this lower spending on apparel to continue, a net negative for retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11895:1">Adastria (2685 JP)</a>, but people will continue to be drawn to good cost performers at the low end like Uniqlo and GU (both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, and at the premium end such as <a href="http://baycrews.co.jp" target="_blank">Baycrews</a>, <a href="http://www.urban-research.com" target="_blank">Urban Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4887" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4887:1">United Arrows (7606 JP)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23991" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23991:1">Tokyo Base (3415 JP)</a> . Zozo’s (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">Start Today (3092 JP)</a>) private brand could fall into this category.</li>
<li>Home fashion remains the only strong performing category over the past five years, with household durables like furniture up 5.7% in 2017 and 14.1% over five years. We expect this home decoration boom to continue, providing a boost to major retailers strong in this category like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20386" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and Muji (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>), and potentially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/641" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>Prices of fresh foods have shot up in recent years, boosting turnover for supermarkets, but pressuring mainstream households. There is no sign of softening in food prices, and we are bullish about any retailer offering discount options. Most of the discounters are still unlisted but some are worth considering such as  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27329:1">Kusuri No Aoki (3549 JP)</a>. A possible move into food discount retailing by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a> in the next year as it absorbs Uny is worth watching and also note that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon (8267 JP)</a> has some discount formats.</li>
<li>Spending on communications – phones and networks – continues to rise, up nearly 14% in five years, and this looks set to continue, benefitting the main networks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/639" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank (9984 JP)</a>, and potentially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten's (4755 JP)</a> new mobile service.</li>
<li>While incomes are rising slightly now, working households are not spending all of the increase but putting more income into savings instead.</li>
<li>At the same time, income sources are changing and becoming less stable, further encouraging savings, benefiting the financial sector major like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/838" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>As a result, averages savings increased 7% in 2017 to ¥17.29 million (US$156,000). The median number was ¥10 million.</li>
<li>Although PM Abe is finally convincing companies to raise wages, if this propensity to save continues, the impact on expenditure will be a lot less than he hopes.</li>
</ul>

Much has been made of gradually rising wages in Japan, and this is indeed good news after 20 years of stagnation and negative growth. But while some of this is feeding into the consumer economy, making some retailers worthy targets for investors, many households remain jittery, and a lot of the new income is being squirrelled away into savings instead.
The following is a detailed analysis of consumption patterns in Japan, but here are the key highlights:

Average monthly incomes rose 2% in 2017 in real terms, the highest since 2010, after hitting a low in 2011, where incomes were down more than 4.5% in nominal terms compared to 2008.
Incomes will rise again in 2018 and 2019.
As a result, both nominal and real spending rose in 2017, up 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. This was the first increase in spending since 2013.
Real expenditure levels are still 3% below the peak reached in 2009. 

This is despite a sharp rise in the cost of fresh food and some other essentials, emphasising just how much households have been cutting back on non-essentials, notably clothing which is down nearly 12% in five years, although some of this loss of value is price deflation.  

We expect this lower spending on apparel to continue, a net negative for retailers like Adastria (2685 JP), but people will continue to be drawn to good cost performers at the low end like Uniqlo and GU (both Fast Retailing (9983 JP)), Shimamura (8227 JP), and at the premium end such as Baycrews, Urban Research, United Arrows (7606 JP) , and Tokyo Base (3415 JP) . Zozo’s (Start Today (3092 JP)) private brand could fall into this category.
Home fashion remains the only strong performing category over the past five years, with household durables like furniture up 5.7% in 2017 and 14.1% over five years. We expect this home decoration boom to continue, providing a boost to major retailers strong in this category like Nitori (9843 JP) and Muji (Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)), and potentially Yamada Denki (9831 JP) .
Prices of fresh foods have shot up in recent years, boosting turnover for supermarkets, but pressuring mainstream households. There is no sign of softening in food prices, and we are bullish about any retailer offering discount options. Most of the discounters are still unlisted but some are worth considering such as  Kobe Bussan (3038 JP), Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and Kusuri No Aoki (3549 JP). A possible move into food discount retailing by Don Quijote (7532 JP) in the next year as it absorbs Uny is worth watching and also note that Aeon (8267 JP) has some discount formats.
Spending on communications – phones and networks – continues to rise, up nearly 14% in five years, and this looks set to continue, benefitting the main networks, NTT Docomo (9437 JP), KDDI (9433 JP) and Softbank (9984 JP), and potentially Rakuten's (4755 JP) new mobile service.
While incomes are rising slightly now, working households are not spending all of the increase but putting more income into savings instead.
At the same time, income sources are changing and becoming less stable, further encouraging savings, benefiting the financial sector major like Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) .
As a result, averages savings increased 7% in 2017 to ¥17.29 million (US$156,000). The median number was ¥10 million.
Although PM Abe is finally convincing companies to raise wages, if this propensity to save continues, the impact on expenditure will be a lot less than he hopes.


Consumption Trends in Japan: Rising Incomes Boosting Retailers but a Lot Going Into Savings Too

Japan

Kusuri no Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care, and household products. Kusuri no Aoki Holdings serves customers in Japan.

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Kusuri no Aoki Holdings (3549 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/17 - Kusuri No Aoki, Alleanza, and Poor Old Ryobi

• BEST & WORST • Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wednesday's announcements is E-commerce office supplies company Askul (2678...

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

SCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further

The drugstore sector has been the fastest growing retail sector after e-commerce in the last decade, boosted by the popularity of Japanese toiletry...

Michael Causton

Japan Fortnightly Update: Celebration

APATHY STRIKES AGAINTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the...

Campbell Gunn

Consumption Trends in Japan: Rising Incomes Boosting Retailers but a Lot Going Into Savings Too

Much has been made of gradually rising wages in Japan, and this is indeed good news after 20 years of stagnation and negative growth. But while...

Michael Causton

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​​17 - Kusuri No Aoki, Alleanza, and Poor Old Ryobi

• BEST & WORST • Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Wednesday's announcements is E-commerce office supplies company Askul (2678...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

SCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further

The drugstore sector has been the fastest growing retail sector after e-commerce in the last decade, boosted by the popularity of Japanese toiletry...

Michael Causton

Japan Fortnightly Update: Celebration

APATHY STRIKES AGAINTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the...

Campbell Gunn

Consumption Trends in Japan: Rising Incomes Boosting Retailers but a Lot Going Into Savings Too

Much has been made of gradually rising wages in Japan, and this is indeed good news after 20 years of stagnation and negative growth. But while...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/17 - Kusuri No Aoki, Alleanza, and Poor Old Ryobi