APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics</li>
<li>We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>APAC financials call remains in place.</li>
<li>Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.</li>
<li>We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…</li>
</ul>

Executive Summary
Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics
We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.
APAC financials call remains in place.
Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.
We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…


ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

<p>It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. </p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</strong></p></blockquote><p>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!</p><h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>IPO</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>
<span lang="EN">Despite the record highs for US indices, m</span><span lang="EN">ost EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.</span>
</li>
<li><span lang="EN">Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN">Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.</span></li>
<li>
<span lang="EN">That backdrop underpins the</span>…</li>
</ul>



Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.

Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.
Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.

That backdrop underpins the…


US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

Founder, Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

Susan Finder

Founder

Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

<p>A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a <a href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjA3NDc5MA==&amp;mid=2654696679&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=de31519c793d3104b951aff8f5533d8a&amp;chksm=bd2110ae8a5699b82257b31d4423e80eb779f5de31303016012381e999a9c774bac4eaa2d167&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=5&amp;srcid=0123rxQfyxxt74qmE8hHGXcm#rd" target="_blank">status report</a> on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.</p><h2>What is special about Zhejiang?</h2><p>Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in <a href="http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Facts-and-Figures/Zhejiang-Market-Profile/ff/en/1/1X000000/1X06BVYH.htm" target="_blank">2015</a>.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…</p>

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province, providing statistics as of the end of September, 2016. What he reported provides signals on the state of the economy there, a province critical to the Chinese economy.What is special about Zhejiang?Zhejiang is an important export base, accounting for about 12% of all Chinese exports in 2015.  Many of the exporting companies are private and in 2015, private…

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
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Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<p><span class="s1"><em>GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017</em></span></p><ul><li class="li2"><span class="s1">In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.</span></li></ul><ul>
<li class="li2"><span class="s1">Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.</span></li>
<li class="li2">
<span class="s1">US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened</span>…</li>
</ul>

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.
Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.

US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened…


Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

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Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Executive Summary Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades...

Sean Maher

Bad Debt Litigation in China's Export Base

A senior judge of China's Zhejiang Province Higher People's Court gave a status report on civil and commercial litigation in his province,...

Susan Finder

Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased...

David Riedel

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