Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative (ETFs negative, high-div SOEs positive) and NORTHBOUND flows a small net sell. AH premia rose slightly on average. Especially at narrow premia.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just four weeks ago. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative (ETFs negative, high-div SOEs positive) and NORTHBOUND flows a small net sell. AH premia rose slightly on average. Especially at narrow premia.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just four weeks ago. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jan 2024):  STAY Long Hs Vs As: Premia Still Wide, Huge High-Div SOE Perf

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. </li>
<li>Renewables and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> were the big net sells on the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$374.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai and Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$374.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, industrials.
We highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai and Longi Green.


Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Financials ($1,425 million worth of outflows), and Consumer Staples ($854 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and outflows from CMB, Wuliangye, Shanghai United, Midea, Hygon.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Financials ($1,425 million worth of outflows), and Consumer Staples ($854 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight inflows into CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and outflows from CMB, Wuliangye, Shanghai United, Midea, Hygon.


Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024):  STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

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Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: Premia Still Wide, Huge High-Div SOE Perf

Hs vs As saw A premia widen at the narrow premia category, and generally narrow in all spreads where A is more than 120% of H. On average, H -11bp...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai, Longi Green.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, CMB, Wuliangye,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: Premia Still Wide, Huge High-Div SOE Perf

Hs vs As saw A premia widen at the narrow premia category, and generally narrow in all spreads where A is more than 120% of H. On average, H -11bp...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

NORTHBOUND saw net selling. Again. This past week it was Kweichow Moutai tops and then a host of renewables names following.

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Jan 12th): Moutai, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight northbound connect flows for Moutai, Longi Green.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, CMB, Wuliangye,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy