Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 10.7bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +16.1bn, +9.9bn and +12.1bn the three weeks before. More National Team buying this week.</li>
<li>Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Again. Info Tech saw net selling. Again. People trading long gamma now instead of short gamma.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 10.7bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +16.1bn, +9.9bn and +12.1bn the three weeks before. More National Team buying this week.
Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Again. Info Tech saw net selling. Again. People trading long gamma now instead of short gamma.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024): Foreigners Buy, Natl Team Buys; Retail Sells

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 9.9bn of A-shares on very strong average activity after +12.1bn RMB the week before. Some National Team buying this week. </li>
<li>Renewables selling was tempered. Energy and Finance saw net selling. Industry and Tech saw large net buying. Relatively larger net Shenzhen buying later in the week as stocks fell hard.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 9.9bn of A-shares on very strong average activity after +12.1bn RMB the week before. Some National Team buying this week. 
Renewables selling was tempered. Energy and Finance saw net selling. Industry and Tech saw large net buying. Relatively larger net Shenzhen buying later in the week as stocks fell hard.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024): Decent Net Buying, But Reversionary Net Flows

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. </li>
<li>Renewables and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> were the big net sells on the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

Equity Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. </li>
<li>The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. </li>
<li>The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. 
The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. 
The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.


Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.</li><li>The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.</li><li>In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) – 3Q Rev/Np +13%/16%; Mixed Near-Term Outlook

China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024): Foreigners Buy, Natl Team Buys; Retail Sells

NORTHBOUND was a net buy 4 weeks in a row (assuming the Chinese New Year and the week after were "1 week"). Felt like an allocation week. Retail...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Feb 2024): Decent Net Buying, But Reversionary Net Flows

NORTHBOUND Connect saw net buying for the second week in a row. +9.9bn RMB vs last week's +12.1bn RMB. Big news in a Very Down Week ahead of...

Travis Lundy