Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyivstar-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45682:1" rel="noopener">Kyivstar Group (KYIV US)</a> launched Starlink Direct to Cell on November 24, making Ukraine the first European country with commercial satellite connectivity to mobile phones.</li>
<li>Satellite connectivity provides Kyivstar a differentiated capability that should be positive for customer churn management given the ‘insurance value’ of having satellite backup connectivity for Ukrainians.</li>
<li>Kyivstar’s Starlink partnership is a net positive for the shares. We reiterate our Structural Long rating and US$19.8 target price. KYIV shares are trading at just 5.1x 2025E EV/EBITDA.</li>
</ul>



Kyivstar Group (KYIV US) launched Starlink Direct to Cell on November 24, making Ukraine the first European country with commercial satellite connectivity to mobile phones.
Satellite connectivity provides Kyivstar a differentiated capability that should be positive for customer churn management given the ‘insurance value’ of having satellite backup connectivity for Ukrainians.
Kyivstar’s Starlink partnership is a net positive for the shares. We reiterate our Structural Long rating and US$19.8 target price. KYIV shares are trading at just 5.1x 2025E EV/EBITDA.


Kyivstar (KYIV US): New Starlink Direct to Cell Net Positive for Market Position

<ul>
<li>Kyivstar recently reported 3Q25 revenue growth of 19.8% YoY to US$297m, with EBITDA rising 20.4% to US$171m.</li>
<li>Digital revenue reached US$35m (+526% YoY), or 11.9% of total revenue in UAH terms, driven primarily by Uklon. Excluding Uklon, digital growth was still 89% YoY (Helsi, Kyivstar TV, Enterprise).</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating and US$19.8 target price for Kyivstar. KYIV is delivering resilient growth while investing to anchor Ukraine’s resilience of critical network infrastructure. Long Ukraine, Long Kyivstar.</li>
</ul>


Kyivstar recently reported 3Q25 revenue growth of 19.8% YoY to US$297m, with EBITDA rising 20.4% to US$171m.
Digital revenue reached US$35m (+526% YoY), or 11.9% of total revenue in UAH terms, driven primarily by Uklon. Excluding Uklon, digital growth was still 89% YoY (Helsi, Kyivstar TV, Enterprise).
Maintain Structural Long rating and US$19.8 target price for Kyivstar. KYIV is delivering resilient growth while investing to anchor Ukraine’s resilience of critical network infrastructure. Long Ukraine, Long Kyivstar.


Kyivstar (KYIV US): Resilient Growth Anchoring Ukraine’s Digital & Connectivity Needs

<ul>
<li>
Ukraine’s leading digital operator with 24m mobile and 1.1m broadband users, providing critical national infrastructure and direct exposure to the country’s recovery and EU-aligned digital renewal.</li>
<li>
Uklon as a transformative asset. With 100m+ annual rides and 100k drivers, Uklon adds unicorn potential and positions Kyivstar to anchor high-frequency platforms powering Ukraine’s next economic chapter.</li>
<li>
Robust financial profile with re-rating upside: US$1.2bn 2025E revenue, US$647m EBITDA, zero debt; trading at 5.2x EV/EBITDA vs peer 6.5x, with upside from ARPU convergence and reconstruction.</li>
</ul>



Ukraine’s leading digital operator with 24m mobile and 1.1m broadband users, providing critical national infrastructure and direct exposure to the country’s recovery and EU-aligned digital renewal.

Uklon as a transformative asset. With 100m+ annual rides and 100k drivers, Uklon adds unicorn potential and positions Kyivstar to anchor high-frequency platforms powering Ukraine’s next economic chapter.

Robust financial profile with re-rating upside: US$1.2bn 2025E revenue, US$647m EBITDA, zero debt; trading at 5.2x EV/EBITDA vs peer 6.5x, with upside from ARPU convergence and reconstruction.


Kyivstar (KYIV US): Structural Long – From Ukraine’s Resilience to Renewal; Uklon Embedded Value

<ul>
<li>VEON's third quarter shows results tracking closely to our overall expectations and keeping the company on pace to reach our full-year 2025E outlook.</li>
<li>VEON’s Pakistan fintech business: 3Q25 accelerating momentum -- The unit has now become an independent operating unit, signaling potenital future value -unlocking activities.</li>
<li>We’ve increased our VEON valuation to US$82 based on better than expected Pakistan fintech performance and rising T12M figures -- We reiterate our Structural Long rating for VEON.</li>
</ul>


VEON's third quarter shows results tracking closely to our overall expectations and keeping the company on pace to reach our full-year 2025E outlook.
VEON’s Pakistan fintech business: 3Q25 accelerating momentum -- The unit has now become an independent operating unit, signaling potenital future value -unlocking activities.
We’ve increased our VEON valuation to US$82 based on better than expected Pakistan fintech performance and rising T12M figures -- We reiterate our Structural Long rating for VEON.


VEON: Pakistan Fintech Momentum Building; Increasing Target Price to $82

<ul>
<li>Remain long into upcoming earnings release. We maintain our Structural Long rating ahead of VEON’s FY3Q25 results (expected to be released mid-November). Our $78 target price implies 50% upside.</li>
<li>Kyivstar IPO related and Kyrgyztsan divestiture related one-offs. Reported 3Q25E profit likely includes ~US$250m in non-cash one-offs, comprising ~US$150m related to the Kyivstar listing and ~US$100m from VEON’s Kyrgyzstan divestiture.</li>
<li>We expect digital growth to remain in the 50% YoY range. Digital revenue growth should continue at a high rate, led by JazzCash in Pakistan and Uklon in Ukraine.</li>
</ul>


Remain long into upcoming earnings release. We maintain our Structural Long rating ahead of VEON’s FY3Q25 results (expected to be released mid-November). Our $78 target price implies 50% upside.
Kyivstar IPO related and Kyrgyztsan divestiture related one-offs. Reported 3Q25E profit likely includes ~US$250m in non-cash one-offs, comprising ~US$150m related to the Kyivstar listing and ~US$100m from VEON’s Kyrgyzstan divestiture.
We expect digital growth to remain in the 50% YoY range. Digital revenue growth should continue at a high rate, led by JazzCash in Pakistan and Uklon in Ukraine.


VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

United States

Kyivstar Group Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides services across a wide range of mobile and fixed line technologies, including 4G, big data, cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and digital TV. Kyivstar Group serves customers in Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates.

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Kyivstar Group (KYIV US)

Kyivstar (KYIV US): New Starlink Direct to Cell Net Positive for Market Position

Kyivstar Group launches Starlink Direct to Cell, providing satellite connectivity to mobile phones in Ukraine, a strategic move for customer...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kyivstar (KYIV US): Resilient Growth Anchoring Ukraine’s Digital & Connectivity Needs

Kyivstar delivered strong revenue and EBITDA in 3Q25, driven by digital services like Uklon plus overall robust telco performance. Reiterate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kyivstar (KYIV US): Structural Long – From Ukraine’s Resilience to Renewal; Uklon Embedded Value

Kyivstar, Ukraine's top digital operator, offers strong growth potential with 24m mobile users and 1.1m broadband users, positioning itself as a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON: Pakistan Fintech Momentum Building; Increasing Target Price to $82

VEON's Q3 results meet expectations, Pakistan fintech unit shows potential for future value unlocking, leading to increased valuation and a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kyivstar (KYIV US): New Starlink Direct to Cell Net Positive for Market Position

​Kyivstar Group launches Starlink Direct to Cell, providing satellite connectivity to mobile phones in Ukraine, a strategic move for customer...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kyivstar (KYIV US): Resilient Growth Anchoring Ukraine’s Digital & Connectivity Needs

​Kyivstar delivered strong revenue and EBITDA in 3Q25, driven by digital services like Uklon plus overall robust telco performance. Reiterate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kyivstar (KYIV US): Structural Long – From Ukraine’s Resilience to Renewal; Uklon Embedded Value

​Kyivstar, Ukraine's top digital operator, offers strong growth potential with 24m mobile users and 1.1m broadband users, positioning itself as a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON: Pakistan Fintech Momentum Building; Increasing Target Price to $82

​VEON's Q3 results meet expectations, Pakistan fintech unit shows potential for future value unlocking, leading to increased valuation and a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

VEON (VEON US) 3Q25 Preview: Digital Revenue Mix & Margins Expanding

​Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kyivstar Group launches Starlink Direct to Cell, providing satellite connectivity to mobile phones in Ukraine, a strategic move for customer...

Kyivstar delivered strong revenue and EBITDA in 3Q25, driven by digital services like Uklon plus overall robust telco performance. Reiterate...

Kyivstar, Ukraine's top digital operator, offers strong growth potential with 24m mobile users and 1.1m broadband users, positioning itself as a...

VEON's Q3 results meet expectations, Pakistan fintech unit shows potential for future value unlocking, leading to increased valuation and a...

Maintain Structural Long rating ahead of VEON's upcoming earnings release with potential 50% upside, despite one-off factors affecting accounting...