Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BofA will invest up to INR 18,268 crore for 49.9% of Jio Credit, beginning with 26.5% equity and moving to 49.9% through warrants convertible within 18 months.</li>
<li>At a 5.5x debt-to-fresh-equity scaling assumption, the new capital can underpin roughly INR 1.0 trillion of incremental borrowings, a step-change in lending capacity.</li>
<li>Jio Credit can move from INR 30,667 crore AUM toward the scale of Mahindra Finance, L&amp;T Finance and HDB Financial much faster than organic capital generation alone would allow.</li>
</ul>


BofA will invest up to INR 18,268 crore for 49.9% of Jio Credit, beginning with 26.5% equity and moving to 49.9% through warrants convertible within 18 months.
At a 5.5x debt-to-fresh-equity scaling assumption, the new capital can underpin roughly INR 1.0 trillion of incremental borrowings, a step-change in lending capacity.
Jio Credit can move from INR 30,667 crore AUM toward the scale of Mahindra Finance, L&amp;T Finance and HDB Financial much faster than organic capital generation alone would allow.


Jio Credit’s ₹18,268 Crore BofA Deal: The Shortcut to ₹1 Lakh+ Crore Loan Book

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&amp;FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent parent company became apparent, the bank finally disclosed its total exposure to the beleaguered leviathan in the late hours of October 31. In the analysts call arranged by the bank the following day to discuss this disclosure, nobody in the senior management of the bank was held to account for 8% of the bank’s capital going up in smoke. (Nor did the servile sell-side analysts demand such accountability.) The absence of basic financial analysis by the bank for providing the Rs 20 bn bridge loan may well be an example of how Indusind Bank evaluates large ticket loans. Investors should be concerned about how many such loans have been liberally handed out to book lucrative fees upfront. The stock market, though, rewarded the bank for its disclosure, and the stock closed 2.8% up in a flat market.

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&amp;FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent parent company became apparent, the bank finally disclosed its total exposure to the beleaguered leviathan in the late hours of October 31. In the analysts call arranged by the bank the following day to discuss this disclosure, nobody in the senior management of the bank was held to account for 8% of the bank’s capital going up in smoke. (Nor did the servile sell-side analysts demand such accountability.) The absence of basic financial analysis by the bank for providing the Rs 20 bn bridge loan may well be an example of how Indusind Bank evaluates large ticket loans. Investors should be concerned about how many such loans have been liberally handed out to book lucrative fees upfront. The stock market, though, rewarded the bank for its disclosure, and the stock closed 2.8% up in a flat market.

Is IL&FS the Only Cockroach in Indusind Bank’s Portfolio?

India

L&T Finance is an Indian non-banking financial company providing a diverse range of financial products and services to rural and urban customers. Its portfolio includes personal loans, two-wheeler loans, home loans, rural business loans, farm loans, and SME loans, alongside bancassurance products such as life, health, and general insurance. L&T Finance is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 2008.

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L&T Finance (LTF IN)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Jio Credit’s ₹18,268 Crore BofA Deal: The Shortcut to ₹1 Lakh+ Crore Loan Book

Bank of America to invest INR 18,268 crore in Jio Credit for 49.9% stake, boosting lending capacity and AUM significantly.

Nimish Maheshwari

Is IL&FS the Only Cockroach in Indusind Bank’s Portfolio?

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent...

Hemindra Hazari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Jio Credit’s ₹18,268 Crore BofA Deal: The Shortcut to ₹1 Lakh+ Crore Loan Book

​Bank of America to invest INR 18,268 crore in Jio Credit for 49.9% stake, boosting lending capacity and AUM significantly.

Nimish Maheshwari

Is IL&FS the Only Cockroach in Indusind Bank’s Portfolio?

Post the public disclosure of bank borrowings by the board of IL&FS, where the scale of Indusind Bank’s unsecured exposure to the insolvent...

Hemindra Hazari

Bank of America to invest INR 18,268 crore in Jio Credit for 49.9% stake, boosting lending capacity and AUM significantly.