HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If you look up history, Laekna has certain connection with Novartis. However, Novartis seems to have not made much progress in small-molecule targeted oncology therapies in the past few years.</li>
<li>LAE001 would face fierce competition. Its new mechanism may not be accepted by doctors/patients in front of many mature drug options in the market. LAE002 has high R&amp;D failure risk.</li>
<li>Since the stock price performance of a number of innovative drug companies based on license-in model in HKEX is unsatisfactory, together with the weak sentiment, we remain conservative about Laekna. </li>
</ul>


If you look up history, Laekna has certain connection with Novartis. However, Novartis seems to have not made much progress in small-molecule targeted oncology therapies in the past few years.
LAE001 would face fierce competition. Its new mechanism may not be accepted by doctors/patients in front of many mature drug options in the market. LAE002 has high R&amp;D failure risk.
Since the stock price performance of a number of innovative drug companies based on license-in model in HKEX is unsatisfactory, together with the weak sentiment, we remain conservative about Laekna. 


Pre-IPO Laekna (PHIP Updates) - Some Key Points Worth the Attention

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.</li>
<li>GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.</li>
<li>In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.
In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

<ul>
<li>Laekna’s development mode is mainly based on license-in. However, the increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products and potential legal risks have made the capital “reconsider”. </li>
<li>Both two core products LAE002 and LAE001 have to face the challenge of market acceptance and potential R&amp;D failure risks. China’s NRDL negotiation further casts doubts on their commercialization prospects.</li>
<li>So, the investment in Laekna may not generate expected return. Together with the unfriendly external environment, we are conservative about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laekna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36029:1" rel="noopener">Laekna (LAEKNA HK)</a>’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


Laekna’s development mode is mainly based on license-in. However, the increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products and potential legal risks have made the capital “reconsider”. 
Both two core products LAE002 and LAE001 have to face the challenge of market acceptance and potential R&amp;D failure risks. China’s NRDL negotiation further casts doubts on their commercialization prospects.
So, the investment in Laekna may not generate expected return. Together with the unfriendly external environment, we are conservative about Laekna (LAEKNA HK)’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Laekna - Low Cost Performance of License-In Mode Leads to A "Rethink" Of Investment Value

Laekna (LAEKNA HK)

Pre-IPO Laekna (PHIP Updates) - Some Key Points Worth the Attention

Laekna's core products would face different challenges, which makes us hard to be optimistic about their prospects.As a biotech based on license-in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO Laekna - Low Cost Performance of License-In Mode Leads to A "Rethink" Of Investment Value

Laekna is mainly based on license-in mode,whose increasingly low cost performance and potential legal risks have made the capital “reconsider”.The...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang