HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Compared to open-loop platforms, LALATECH’s closed-loop model has stronger bilateral network effects.The downward trend in monetization rate is not a short-term phenomenon, but a structural trend under regulatory constraints/fierce competition</li>
<li>If monetization rate drops to 8% and cannot recover, the efficiency of converting GTV into revenue will continue to decline.Even if GTV maintains growth, the incremental revenue will be eroded.</li>
<li>Based on 2026 forecast, we think a conservative valuation range could be 18-22x P/E. A neutral valuation range could be 20-24x P/E. An optimistic valuation range could be 25-30x P/E. </li>
</ul>


Compared to open-loop platforms, LALATECH’s closed-loop model has stronger bilateral network effects.The downward trend in monetization rate is not a short-term phenomenon, but a structural trend under regulatory constraints/fierce competition
If monetization rate drops to 8% and cannot recover, the efficiency of converting GTV into revenue will continue to decline.Even if GTV maintains growth, the incremental revenue will be eroded.
Based on 2026 forecast, we think a conservative valuation range could be 18-22x P/E. A neutral valuation range could be 20-24x P/E. An optimistic valuation range could be 25-30x P/E. 


Pre-IPO Lalatech Holdings - Profit Growth Is Under Pressure Due To Declining Monetization Rate

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance showed strong improvement in core margin in Q226 due to mix change</li>
<li>We believe the company's rate of top-line growth could begin to accelerate by end of H226</li>
<li>At ~12x FY26 EPS and featuring a 4% dividend yield, shares appear attractive below US$9</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance showed strong improvement in core margin in Q226 due to mix change
We believe the company's rate of top-line growth could begin to accelerate by end of H226
At ~12x FY26 EPS and featuring a 4% dividend yield, shares appear attractive below US$9


Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

<ul>
<li>On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results</li>
<li>Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins</li>
<li>We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target</li>
</ul>


On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results
Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins
We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target


Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist</li>
<li>The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough</li>
<li>In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful</li>
</ul>


In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist
The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough
In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

<ul>
<li>Based on returns and margins, US-listed Full Truck Alliance is best comp</li>
<li>Lalatech probably deserves premium valuation multiples vs Full Truck Alliance </li>
<li>An equity valuation of US$11bn+ justifiable; will investors look at recent flops?</li>
</ul>


Based on returns and margins, US-listed Full Truck Alliance is best comp
Lalatech probably deserves premium valuation multiples vs Full Truck Alliance 
An equity valuation of US$11bn+ justifiable; will investors look at recent flops?


Lalatech IPO: Using YMM:US as Main Comp, Equity Valuation of US$11-12 Bn (Or More) Justifiable

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Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)

Pre-IPO Lalatech Holdings - Profit Growth Is Under Pressure Due To Declining Monetization Rate

LALATECH's closed-loop model faces challenges with declining monetization rates due to regulatory constraints and competition, impacting revenue...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

Here in Q326 Full Truck Alliance is lapping the last set of challenging Y/Y revenue comps; it should return to improved top-line growth in Q426 and...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a publicly-traded smart locker and e-comm fulfillment specialist based in Poland. It's not a perfect...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO: Using YMM:US as Main Comp, Equity Valuation of US$11-12 Bn (Or More) Justifiable

What are the best comps for Lalatech, which valuation multiples should we focus on, and does the company deserve a premium valuation relative to...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Lalatech Holdings - Profit Growth Is Under Pressure Due To Declining Monetization Rate

​LALATECH's closed-loop model faces challenges with declining monetization rates due to regulatory constraints and competition, impacting revenue...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Full Truck Alliance Q226 Result: Sharp Improvement in Core Margin, Shares Attractive Below US$9

Here in Q326 Full Truck Alliance is lapping the last set of challenging Y/Y revenue comps; it should return to improved top-line growth in Q426 and...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a publicly-traded smart locker and e-comm fulfillment specialist based in Poland. It's not a perfect...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO: Using YMM:US as Main Comp, Equity Valuation of US$11-12 Bn (Or More) Justifiable

What are the best comps for Lalatech, which valuation multiples should we focus on, and does the company deserve a premium valuation relative to...

Tracking Traffic

LALATECH's closed-loop model faces challenges with declining monetization rates due to regulatory constraints and competition, impacting revenue...