US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> is expected to fail the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review due to low free float unless its price surges ~22% in the next week.</li>
<li>The 6-month lock-up expiry will lift the fcap closely above the threshold significantly increasing the probability of inclusion at the March 2025 review.</li>
<li>If the mcap qualifies for the small-cap segment, its inclusion is possible at the November 2024 review due to lower fcap requirements. </li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is expected to fail the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review due to low free float unless its price surges ~22% in the next week.
The 6-month lock-up expiry will lift the fcap closely above the threshold significantly increasing the probability of inclusion at the March 2025 review.
If the mcap qualifies for the small-cap segment, its inclusion is possible at the November 2024 review due to lower fcap requirements. 


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Might Prove Golden for Global Index Inclusion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.</li>
<li>Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.</li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Guangdong Chj Industry Co A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CHJ’s business model integrates franchise stores and self-operated stores. Franchising as the main approach is beneficial for achieving rapid expansion, while self-operation as a supplement helps to enhance brand image.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition, future growth of CHJ may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but may be under pressure due to rising raw material costs/reduced customer demand.</li>
<li>We think valuation of CHJ should be lower than Laopu, but could be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK)</a> due to CHJ’s higher performance growth in the short term.  </li>
</ul>


CHJ’s business model integrates franchise stores and self-operated stores. Franchising as the main approach is beneficial for achieving rapid expansion, while self-operation as a supplement helps to enhance brand image.
Due to increasing competition, future growth of CHJ may not be benefit from the high gold prices, but may be under pressure due to rising raw material costs/reduced customer demand.
We think valuation of CHJ should be lower than Laopu, but could be higher than Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) due to CHJ’s higher performance growth in the short term.  


Pre-IPO Guangdong CHJ Industry - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Stock price of Zijin Gold fluctuated up and down and not closely followed gold prices, which may disappoint investors who buy gold companies to take advantage of rising gold prices.</li>
<li>We'll reduce holdings of gold/silver and hold cash to deal with liquidity crises. Given the hyperinflation brought about by dollar depreciation, we'll focus on inflation trading after liquidity crisis occurs.</li>
<li>The main investment targets we will select include: commodities (e.g. gold, silver, copper). Upstream gold mining companies (e.g. Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold) will have priority over downstream company like Laopu.</li>
</ul>


Stock price of Zijin Gold fluctuated up and down and not closely followed gold prices, which may disappoint investors who buy gold companies to take advantage of rising gold prices.
We'll reduce holdings of gold/silver and hold cash to deal with liquidity crises. Given the hyperinflation brought about by dollar depreciation, we'll focus on inflation trading after liquidity crisis occurs.
The main investment targets we will select include: commodities (e.g. gold, silver, copper). Upstream gold mining companies (e.g. Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold) will have priority over downstream company like Laopu.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) Vs Laopu Gold (6181 HK) Vs Gold Commodity- The Investment Logic and the Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Sany Heavy Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Hong Kong and India markets appear to be gearing up for a year end rush.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there were no large deals this week but we did have a look at the upcoming lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Hong Kong and India markets appear to be gearing up for a year end rush.
On the placements front, there were no large deals this week but we did have a look at the upcoming lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (27 October 2025)- Sany, Seres, PonyAI, WeRide, CIG, JST, Lenskart, Horizon, CRB

China

Laopu Gold Co., Ltd. produces and sells jewelry products. The Company produces pendants, bracelets, bracelets, collectibles, ornaments, and other products. Laopu Gold also operates import and export businesses.

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Laopu Gold (6181 HK)