Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Casino Business Review LLC

Extensive experience in marketing and development in the Asian gaming market

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Adelson family interests have sold 10% of their LVS equity to acquire a pro basketball franchise. This triggered am 8.5% decline in the stock when it was actually  bullish.</li>
<li>The market has not yet grasped the magnitude of  the Asian  gaming  recovery arc which points to 2024 reaching baseline 2019 arrivals and GRR pace by mid-2024.</li>
<li>LVS has the scale and amenities to outperform peers but this  is  not  yet reflected in its trading  range dead pooled in  the $40s.</li>
</ul>


Adelson family interests have sold 10% of their LVS equity to acquire a pro basketball franchise. This triggered am 8.5% decline in the stock when it was actually  bullish.
The market has not yet grasped the magnitude of  the Asian  gaming  recovery arc which points to 2024 reaching baseline 2019 arrivals and GRR pace by mid-2024.
LVS has the scale and amenities to outperform peers but this  is  not  yet reflected in its trading  range dead pooled in  the $40s.


Las Vegas Sands: Our Case for This as a $70 Stock Is Strong but It Lingers in the 40s

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Toyota Group of companies are proposing to reduce their holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> by selling about 10% by year-end, in a share sale worth ~$4.7bn.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The Toyota Group of companies are proposing to reduce their holdings in Denso (6902 JP) by selling about 10% by year-end, in a share sale worth ~$4.7bn.
Preceding my comments on Toyota Industries (6201 JP) / Toyota Motor (7203 JP) - and Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Toyota Group To Sell 10% of Denso; Adelson Selling LVS

<ul>
<li>Investors appear to be divided in  outlook  on Wynn. Some concern about post covid Las Vegas boom losing steam vs. exploding  Macau recovery beyond most early forecasts.</li>
<li>Wynn's Macau properties are particularly aimed at the all  important premium  mass segment which is already showing itself in dramatic casino win  games at  Wynn propeties.</li>
<li>The company still  benefits from the  vision  of  founder Steve Wynn in the properties developed before his controversial resignation in 2018.</li>
</ul>


Investors appear to be divided in  outlook  on Wynn. Some concern about post covid Las Vegas boom losing steam vs. exploding  Macau recovery beyond most early forecasts.
Wynn's Macau properties are particularly aimed at the all  important premium  mass segment which is already showing itself in dramatic casino win  games at  Wynn propeties.
The company still  benefits from the  vision  of  founder Steve Wynn in the properties developed before his controversial resignation in 2018.


Wynn: Market Has Not Caught on yet to Speed of Macau Recovery Making Current Entry Point Attractive

<ul>
<li>Our long held strong conviction on  LVS has not faltered despite its chronically undervalued.</li>
<li>Monthly gross gaming win trends do not reflect sagging China economy.</li>
<li>Imminent 3Q23  earnings release may well  hold upside surprises. We sense a beat.</li>
</ul>


Our long held strong conviction on  LVS has not faltered despite its chronically undervalued.
Monthly gross gaming win trends do not reflect sagging China economy.
Imminent 3Q23  earnings release may well  hold upside surprises. We sense a beat.


Las Vegas Sands: A Clear Cut Buy on the Dip Strategy as Asia Gaming Recovery Gains Strength

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. </li>
<li>The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.</li>
<li>There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.</li>
</ul>


The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. 
The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.
There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

United States

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)

Las Vegas Sands: Our Case for This as a $70 Stock Is Strong but It Lingers in the 40s

LVS is vastly undervalued due to outlier sentiment. Basics indicate a PT of $70 which we believer reflects a truer valuation given its recovery...

Howard J Klein

StubWorld: Toyota Group To Sell 10% of Denso; Adelson Selling LVS

This has been a great stub trade since late March. Look to unwind here. Both TICO and TMC intend to pocket a chunk of change in Denso. The net...

David Blennerhassett

Wynn: Market Has Not Caught on yet to Speed of Macau Recovery Making Current Entry Point Attractive

The market has ignored a strong buy on the dip opportunity when Macau recovery is moving faster than all forecasts to date.

Howard J Klein

Las Vegas Sands: A Clear Cut Buy on the Dip Strategy as Asia Gaming Recovery Gains Strength

LVS has been chronically undervalued largely due to lingering concerns about Asia gaming recovery. The company is already ramping faster than ...

Howard J Klein

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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