Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same time, small-caps continue to be one area of the market that gives us some reason for pause as neither the Russell 2000 or S&amp;P Small Cap 600 indexes have been able to make bullish price or RS inflections. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Large- and Small-Cap Casinos &amp; Gaming , Banks, Super-Regional, and Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap.

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same time, small-caps continue to be one area of the market that gives us some reason for pause as neither the Russell 2000 or S&amp;P Small Cap 600 indexes have been able to make bullish price or RS inflections. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Large- and Small-Cap Casinos &amp; Gaming , Banks, Super-Regional, and Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Waiting on Small-Caps

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau.

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors:  1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as much as ~10 bn HKD in June (either the guy or the junket operator should have gone bankrupt but the operator is still in business so we estimate that the player lost lots of money so unlikely to return Macau soon); 2) both VIP and mass segments were negatively impacted by 2018 World Cup Russia from June 14 to Jul 15, setting low comp for June 2019; 3) unprecedented HK protests in scale and duration starting on June 9th turned off mainland tourists who consequently have deprioritized HK as an outbound destination, shifting demand to Macau. 

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

Since May 10 when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He left the Washington without a trade deal with the US, nor any plan for future talks, both countries have been heating up the rhetoric’s against each other at home, diminishing the public’s perception of a deal in near future.   We believe that the trade talks broke down due to highly principal issues.  China were indeed to comply with the signed “contract” on paper, its state interest in strategic industries and state-owned-enterprises would be severely compromised – something that Chins is not ready nor willing to do for now.  What’s more, the complex friction within the Party, and opposition from the conservatives, played a key role in Xi’s hardening position against the US.  While projecting a hardline to the domestic audience, China on the other hand, has NOT engaged any significant counter measures since Trump’s somewhat unexpected tariff hike of 25% on one third of all Chinese products effectively on May 10th.

Since May 10 when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He left the Washington without a trade deal with the US, nor any plan for future talks, both countries have been heating up the rhetoric’s against each other at home, diminishing the public’s perception of a deal in near future.   We believe that the trade talks broke down due to highly principal issues.  China were indeed to comply with the signed “contract” on paper, its state interest in strategic industries and state-owned-enterprises would be severely compromised – something that Chins is not ready nor willing to do for now.  What’s more, the complex friction within the Party, and opposition from the conservatives, played a key role in Xi’s hardening position against the US.  While projecting a hardline to the domestic audience, China on the other hand, has NOT engaged any significant counter measures since Trump’s somewhat unexpected tariff hike of 25% on one third of all Chinese products effectively on May 10th.

Rising Nationalism Propaganda by State Media, China Macro Data 4M 2019

United States

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Waiting on Small-Caps

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same...

Vermilion Research

Macau Update: Individual Whale Boosting June VIP; WC 2018 Low Base, Mass Benefiting from HK Protests

Macau printed much better than expected June GGR of 5.9% YoY, due to a combination of positive factors: 1) one big spender in VIP room rolled as...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Rising Nationalism Propaganda by State Media, China Macro Data 4M 2019

Since May 10 when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He left the Washington without a trade deal with the US, nor any plan for future talks, both countries...

JL Warren Capital

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)