Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a>. </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703). 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!</li>
<li>OVERSEAS: Slowing PPI fuels Fed pivot view; UST yields fall as Tech gets bid; Add to that China stimulating+thaw in US tensions; 12M Momentum to Growth shift continues. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures  FLAT vs Cash; USDJPY at 139 handle with latest PPI  and lower UST yields; Cit D/G of Sumco appear       mis-timed with global bid in longer duration stocks(GROWTH). </li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
OVERSEAS: Slowing PPI fuels Fed pivot view; UST yields fall as Tech gets bid; Add to that China stimulating+thaw in US tensions; 12M Momentum to Growth shift continues. 
JAPAN: NKY Futures  FLAT vs Cash; USDJPY at 139 handle with latest PPI  and lower UST yields; Cit D/G of Sumco appear       mis-timed with global bid in longer duration stocks(GROWTH). 


Good Morning Japan |US PPI Fuels Fed Pivot View = Bullish Equities

<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW us to keep abreast!
</li>
<li>
OVERNIGHT:  BETA bid with Commodities &amp;Tech leading; Momentum &amp; Value sold; SOX +15%WoW; China 20-point plan on COVID-19 easing;  FTX Bankruptcy - CEO flees the US. Democrats retain Senate-IRA safe. </li>
<li>
JAPAN:  NKY Futs  -0.5% vs Cash; Further yen strength with USDJPY ¥138.81; Bain to lift JP invest &gt;$40b-focus is Kansai tech cos; No new Softbank buyback; Rakuten losing mobile subs</li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW us to keep abreast!


OVERNIGHT:  BETA bid with Commodities &amp;Tech leading; Momentum &amp; Value sold; SOX +15%WoW; China 20-point plan on COVID-19 easing;  FTX Bankruptcy - CEO flees the US. Democrats retain Senate-IRA safe. 

JAPAN:  NKY Futs  -0.5% vs Cash; Further yen strength with USDJPY ¥138.81; Bain to lift JP invest &gt;$40b-focus is Kansai tech cos; No new Softbank buyback; Rakuten losing mobile subs


Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity - ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day - BETTER THAN EXPECTED</li>
<li>Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those  names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec</li>
<li>Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price</li>
</ul>


ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity - ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day - BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those  names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec
Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price


Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify - From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |US PPI Fuels Fed Pivot View = Bullish Equities

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify - From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation

Bullish ASML update implications and moderating inflation to drive re-rating of Lasertec. We see order outlook much better than forecast and expect...

Mark Chadwick

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