Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>PC &amp; Server solutions names have fallen moderately from highs in June, however enterprise server company HPE soared 20% on AI strength.</li>
<li>Despite the market pullback from highs, we note that 2025E forward growth expectations have generally increased for the universe over the last month.</li>
<li>Latest Taiwan PC company revenues indicate healthy growth and HPE's management guided for Enterprise AI orders to accelerate.</li>
</ul>


PC &amp; Server solutions names have fallen moderately from highs in June, however enterprise server company HPE soared 20% on AI strength.
Despite the market pullback from highs, we note that 2025E forward growth expectations have generally increased for the universe over the last month.
Latest Taiwan PC company revenues indicate healthy growth and HPE's management guided for Enterprise AI orders to accelerate.


PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

<ul>
<li>Asus's 1Q24 earnings beat consensus by 46% thanks to major increase in operating margin driven by costs optimization. Adjusted Asus brand Op profit rose 227% YoY and 98% QoQ.</li>
<li>Asus will host a major AI PC launch event May 21st, with additional AI PCs launched at Computex in Taiwan June 4th. Will feature <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> Snapdragon processors.</li>
<li>Asus confident in an PC upgrade cycle and has guided for sales to rise and margins to expand in the coming quarters. We maintain our Structural Long rating for Asus.</li>
</ul>


Asus's 1Q24 earnings beat consensus by 46% thanks to major increase in operating margin driven by costs optimization. Adjusted Asus brand Op profit rose 227% YoY and 98% QoQ.
Asus will host a major AI PC launch event May 21st, with additional AI PCs launched at Computex in Taiwan June 4th. Will feature Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) Snapdragon processors.
Asus confident in an PC upgrade cycle and has guided for sales to rise and margins to expand in the coming quarters. We maintain our Structural Long rating for Asus.


Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Nvidia GTC Conference This Week Likely to Create Newsflow for Many Tech Names</li>
<li>Samsung Could Hike NAND Flash Prices by 20%; Silicon Motion for Exposure</li>
<li>TSMC Reportedly Placing Orders for Additional Advanced Packaging Capacity, Likely In Response to Demand Strength</li>
</ul>


Nvidia GTC Conference This Week Likely to Create Newsflow for Many Tech Names
Samsung Could Hike NAND Flash Prices by 20%; Silicon Motion for Exposure
TSMC Reportedly Placing Orders for Additional Advanced Packaging Capacity, Likely In Response to Demand Strength


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Conference; Samsung to Hike NAND Prices; TSMC Adding Capex Due to Demand

<ul>
<li>Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names Asus and MSI by a wide margin. Close Long Dell vs. Short Acer. Dell's value gap has dissipated.</li>
<li>Latest indications from Dell and HP highlight that the AI PC's will drive upgrades from customers, but the PC recovery remains soft. AI PC impact only in 2025E.</li>
<li>Dell and HPQ's recent results provide positive color for upcoming Asus, Acer, and MSI results. Trade: Long Asus into its upcoming earnings results.</li>
</ul>


Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names Asus and MSI by a wide margin. Close Long Dell vs. Short Acer. Dell's value gap has dissipated.
Latest indications from Dell and HP highlight that the AI PC's will drive upgrades from customers, but the PC recovery remains soft. AI PC impact only in 2025E.
Dell and HPQ's recent results provide positive color for upcoming Asus, Acer, and MSI results. Trade: Long Asus into its upcoming earnings results.


PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

Hong Kong

Lenovo Group Limited is a multinational technology company specializing in designing, manufacturing, and marketing consumer electronics, personal computers, software, servers, and related services. Its key products include laptops (ThinkPad, IdeaPad, Yoga, Legion), desktop computers, smartphones (Motorola Mobility), and IT infrastructure solutions. The company was founded on November 1, 1984, in Beijing, China, and has global headquarters in Beijing, China, and Morrisville, North Carolina, United States.

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Lenovo (992 HK)

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Conference; Samsung to Hike NAND Prices; TSMC Adding Capex Due to Demand

Many Taiwanese companies participating at Nvidia's GTC conference this week. Local reports say Samsung to hike NAND flash prices by 20%. Also,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

​PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

​Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Conference; Samsung to Hike NAND Prices; TSMC Adding Capex Due to Demand

​Many Taiwanese companies participating at Nvidia's GTC conference this week. Local reports say Samsung to hike NAND flash prices by 20%. Also,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Long Dell Vs. Short Acer Update; Dell & HPQ Results Indicate Opportunity in Asus

​Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...

Many Taiwanese companies participating at Nvidia's GTC conference this week. Local reports say Samsung to hike NAND flash prices by 20%. Also,...

Dell has outperformed Acer and other Taiwan PC names. Positive results from Dell and HPQ remove risk of disappointment in upcoming results for...