HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> are possible candidates.</li>
<li>Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.</li>
</ul>


The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.


China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo</li>
<li>In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).</li>
<li>Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo
In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).
Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Broad based weakness, less than ½ of optionable stocks were up on the week with the average size of losses larger than average size of gains.</li>
<li>Total single stock Put option volume the highest in the past 4 months pushing the Put/Call ratio to a local extreme. </li>
<li>Laggards from the rally holding on, rally leaders broadly weak.</li>
</ul>


Broad based weakness, less than ½ of optionable stocks were up on the week with the average size of losses larger than average size of gains.
Total single stock Put option volume the highest in the past 4 months pushing the Put/Call ratio to a local extreme. 
Laggards from the rally holding on, rally leaders broadly weak.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Broad Deterioration

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. </li><li>DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. </li><li>CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.</li></ul>

Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the post-CNY return, SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was not. </li>
<li>Tech ended up being a big net buy, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> a big net sell. </li>
<li>Lower-Than-Expected tariff rates against China meant foreigners are back to buying Chinese stocks for the time being which may lower SB net buys near-term.</li>
</ul>


In the post-CNY return, SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was not. 
Tech ended up being a big net buy, but Tencent (700 HK) a big net sell. 
Lower-Than-Expected tariff rates against China meant foreigners are back to buying Chinese stocks for the time being which may lower SB net buys near-term.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

China

Lenovo Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells, and manufactures personal computers and handheld devices. The Company also provides Internet services and IT services, and contracting manufacturing business.

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Lenovo (992 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo

Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Broad Deterioration

The market saw broad weakness with less than half of optionable stocks up for the week. Put option volumes at 4-month high, pushing Put/Call ratio...

John Ley

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

FEHT is favored by analysts for strong hotel RevPAR, DBS is skeptical of China's AI breakthrough, and CGSI upgrades ISDN on industrial automation...

Singapore Market Roundup

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

Post Chinese New Year, SOUTHBOUND activity is heavy but with low net buying. Tech was net bought last week, and high div SOEs were sold. Foreigners...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo

Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Broad Deterioration

​The market saw broad weakness with less than half of optionable stocks up for the week. Put option volumes at 4-month high, pushing Put/Call ratio...

John Ley

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

FEHT is favored by analysts for strong hotel RevPAR, DBS is skeptical of China's AI breakthrough, and CGSI upgrades ISDN on industrial automation...

Singapore Market Roundup

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

Post Chinese New Year, SOUTHBOUND activity is heavy but with low net buying. Tech was net bought last week, and high div SOEs were sold. Foreigners...

Travis Lundy

The market saw broad weakness with less than half of optionable stocks up for the week. Put option volumes at 4-month high, pushing Put/Call ratio...