Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.</p><p>Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.</p><p>This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.</p>

Ant Group (6688 HK) almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', Ant Group (6688 HK) announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> (Lufax) raised around US$2.4bn via its US listing. The company is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> (Ping An).</p>
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<p>Lufax is a technology-empowered personal financial services platform in China. The company aims to address the demand for personal lending among small business owners, as well as salaried workers in China. It also provides wealth management solutions to China’s middle class and affluent population.</p>
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<p>I covered the various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:</p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-the-positives-able-to-grow-despite-the-headwinds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - The Positives - Able to Grow Despite the Headwinds</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-the-negatives-remains-in-flux" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains in Flux</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-pre-ipo-peer-review-bigger-than-ant-s-credittech-in-revenue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax Pre-IPO - Peer Review - Bigger than Ant’s CreditTech, in Revenue</a></li>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-stuck-with-the-earlier-fundraising-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lufax IPO - Stuck with the Earlier Fundraising Valuation</a></li>
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<p>In this insight, talk about deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different ADS levels.</p>
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Lufax Holdings (LU US) (Lufax) raised around US$2.4bn via its US listing. The company is backed by Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) (Ping An).


Lufax is a technology-empowered personal financial services platform in China. The company aims to address the demand for personal lending among small business owners, as well as salaried workers in China. It also provides wealth management solutions to China’s middle class and affluent population.


I covered the various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:



Lufax Pre-IPO - The Positives - Able to Grow Despite the Headwinds
Lufax Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains in Flux
Lufax Pre-IPO - Peer Review - Bigger than Ant’s CreditTech, in Revenue



Lufax IPO - Stuck with the Earlier Fundraising Valuation


In this insight, talk about deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different ADS levels.


Lufax IPO Trading - Possible FTSE Inclusion Might Help in the Short-Term

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> has priced above the initial market capitalisation range of USD200 to USD300bn, at USD317bn including its over-allotment option of shares</li>
<li>Ant’s IPO valuation reflects the assumptions in our ambitious scenario SOTP valuation</li>
<li>Based on earnings and EBITDA multiples, Ant Group looks attractive relative to payments companies and fast growth investment and wealth managers</li>
<li>Ant is at a slight discount to the China MegaTech comparables, and we believe that it warrants a premium valuation to its China peers</li>
<li>Ant’s premium growth potential in digital finance, leveraging off its leading digital payments footprint, indicates further upside potential to the shares post IPO, in our view</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Ant Group include increased regulatory restrictions in China, heightened geopolitical tensions impacting demand for the shares at IPO and weaker than expected GDP growth limiting growth potential, especially in China</li>
</ul>



Ant Group (6688 HK) has priced above the initial market capitalisation range of USD200 to USD300bn, at USD317bn including its over-allotment option of shares
Ant’s IPO valuation reflects the assumptions in our ambitious scenario SOTP valuation
Based on earnings and EBITDA multiples, Ant Group looks attractive relative to payments companies and fast growth investment and wealth managers
Ant is at a slight discount to the China MegaTech comparables, and we believe that it warrants a premium valuation to its China peers
Ant’s premium growth potential in digital finance, leveraging off its leading digital payments footprint, indicates further upside potential to the shares post IPO, in our view
Risks to our positive view on Ant Group include increased regulatory restrictions in China, heightened geopolitical tensions impacting demand for the shares at IPO and weaker than expected GDP growth limiting growth potential, especially in China


Ant Group (6688 HK): IPO Pricing Warrants a Re-Rating

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (1051260D CH)</a> has priced the Hong Kong leg of its IPO at HKD 80.00 per share. At this price, Ant’s dual-listing will raise around USD 34bn, and value the company at a market cap of around USD 313bn. </li></ul><ul>
<li>As we had anticipated in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ant-group-ipo-a-good-bargain-against-global-fintech-peers-with-healthy-short-term-upside-potential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43906" rel="noopener">Ant Group IPO: A Good Bargain Against Global Fintech Peers with Healthy Short-Term Upside Potential</a>, Ant’s IPO valuation is significantly above the initially rumoured valuation of USD 250bn. </li>
<li>In this note, we present our final thoughts on Ant’s IPO pricing, based on a SOTP valuation.</li>
</ul>


Ant Group (1051260D CH) has priced the Hong Kong leg of its IPO at HKD 80.00 per share. At this price, Ant’s dual-listing will raise around USD 34bn, and value the company at a market cap of around USD 313bn. 
As we had anticipated in our previous note, Ant Group IPO: A Good Bargain Against Global Fintech Peers with Healthy Short-Term Upside Potential, Ant’s IPO valuation is significantly above the initially rumoured valuation of USD 250bn. 
In this note, we present our final thoughts on Ant’s IPO pricing, based on a SOTP valuation.


Ant Group IPO: More Upside to the IPO Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

China

LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides online consumer finance services. LexinFintech Holdings offers installments, money loans, wealth management, and other financial services. LexinFintech Holdings serves customers in China.

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Lexinfintech Holdings (LX US)

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Brian Freitas

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Sumeet Singh

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Ant Group's share price at IPO is above the original expected range; still, we expect solid share re-rating potential given its growth prospects...

Victor Galliano

Ant Group IPO: More Upside to the IPO Valuation

Ant Group has priced the Hong Kong leg of its IPO at HKD 80.00 per share valuing the company at USD 313bn. In this note, we present our final...

Supun Walpola

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

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