Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Shinpoong Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a> recorded operating loss of KRW34 billion in 2022 from operating loss of KRW14 billion in 2021 and an operating profit of KRW8 billion in 2020.</li>
<li>Shinpoong is investing heavily on R&amp;D, which is taking a toll on its financial health. During 2022, R&amp;D expenses accounted for 21% of total revenue, up from 16% in 2021.</li>
<li>The company is revising phase 3 trial plan for anti-malarial drug Pyramax as COVID-19 treatment. Even if Pyramax succeeds to get approval, the drug is expected to have limited uptake.</li>
</ul>



Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS) recorded operating loss of KRW34 billion in 2022 from operating loss of KRW14 billion in 2021 and an operating profit of KRW8 billion in 2020.
Shinpoong is investing heavily on R&amp;D, which is taking a toll on its financial health. During 2022, R&amp;D expenses accounted for 21% of total revenue, up from 16% in 2021.
The company is revising phase 3 trial plan for anti-malarial drug Pyramax as COVID-19 treatment. Even if Pyramax succeeds to get approval, the drug is expected to have limited uptake.


Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS): Widening Operating Loss; COVID Drug Loses Steam

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-cheiljedang-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1970:1" rel="noopener">CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)</a>   </li>
<li>For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%</li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) , LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS)   
For the nineteen weeks since inception ended 31 March the combined innovation portfolio was +2.4%, versus DJIA -1.4%, S&amp;P500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +9.7%, Russell2000 -2.6%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +4.9%, all in US$ terms
For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and the large cap portfolio was up 2.1%


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.</li>
<li>Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.
Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short seller Blue Orca is alleging <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27991:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (ALL LN)</a> is seeking to obtain a Ghanaian lithium mining licence via "textbook corruption".</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17619:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU)</a> is a substantial shareholder of Atlantic, together with a co-development agreement for the Ghanaian project, in which the mining license has yet to be ratified. </li>
<li>Orca reckons the license ratification will fail the corruption sniff test, which in turn will jeopardise the Tennessee lithium offtake facility, currently awaiting a DOE grant.</li>
</ul>


Short seller Blue Orca is alleging Atlantic Lithium (ALL LN) is seeking to obtain a Ghanaian lithium mining licence via "textbook corruption".

Piedmont Lithium (PLL AU) is a substantial shareholder of Atlantic, together with a co-development agreement for the Ghanaian project, in which the mining license has yet to be ratified. 
Orca reckons the license ratification will fail the corruption sniff test, which in turn will jeopardise the Tennessee lithium offtake facility, currently awaiting a DOE grant.


Piedmont Lithium: General Mosquito & "Textbook Corruption"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

South Korea

LG Chem Ltd. is a chemical manufacturer. The Company's products include petrochemicals, plastic resins, and engineering plastics. LG Chem also produces industrial and electronic materials.

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LG Chem (051915 KS)

Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS): Widening Operating Loss; COVID Drug Loses Steam

Shinpoong’s operating loss widened to KRW34B in 2022 from KRW14B in 2021. The company is developing oral drug for COVID. As pandemic has subsided,...

Tina Banerjee

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Nineteen

For the nineteen since inception ended 31 March the innovation small cap portfolio was up 8.0%, the innovation mid cap portfolio was up 3.2% and...

Pyari Menon

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Piedmont Lithium: General Mosquito & "Textbook Corruption"

There's a considerable amount of expectation on cashflow baked into Piedmont's price from the Tennessee and Quebec facility's off-take agreements....

David Blennerhassett

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

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