Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-cns-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35945:1" rel="noopener">LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS)</a> is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI200 Index</a> will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.</li>
<li>Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.</li>
</ul>



LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.
Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.


LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.</li>
<li>Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.</li>
<li>On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.</li>
</ul>


The KRW 5T-6T valuation and 13x-16x PER look solid compared to local peers like SDS and Hyundai AutoEver, with CNS possibly getting a premium due to its smaller captive stake.
Instos probably won’t push hard for lock-ups but will aggressively target pricing to secure larger allotments, knowing the company is likely to stick with a market-friendly price.
On a separate note, I wouldn’t expect much of a NAV discount reduction for LG Corp, as LG CNS’s stake isn’t significant enough to move the needle.


LG CNS IPO Details Out: My Read on This IPO

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.</li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. </li>
<li>Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. </li>
</ul>


Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. 
Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. 


Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

<ul>
<li>I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.</li>
<li>With LG Corp's 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.</li>
<li>If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.</li>
</ul>


I’m focusing on the price action of LG Corp when LG CNS enters the KOSPI 200 IT sector, causing LG Corp to be removed from the index.
With LG Corp's 6% weight, its removal could trigger ETF rebalancing (TIGER), leading to an outflow exceeding twice the usual daily trading volume.
If LG CNS misses Fast Entry, it’ll enter in December, not June. We’ll time our short position on LG Corp to align with passive outflows during that window.


The Unexpected Passive Trade from the LG CNS IPO: Short LG Corp

<ul>
<li>On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.</li>
<li>The share buybacks would represent 1.5% and 0.7% of LG Chem and LG Electronics' market cap, respectively.</li>
<li>Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 14.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 93,430 won, which is 25% higher than current price.</li>
</ul>


On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.
The share buybacks would represent 1.5% and 0.7% of LG Chem and LG Electronics' market cap, respectively.
Our base case NAV valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests implied NAV of 14.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 93,430 won, which is 25% higher than current price.


LG Corp Plans to Buy 250 Billion Won of LG Chem and LG Electronics + 2 Major LG Group IPOs in 2025

South Korea

LG Corp. is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including LG Electronics, LG Household & Health Care, LG Chem Ltd., and Dacom Corp. The Company's main business areas are electronics, chemicals, and household products manufacturing and telecommunications services.

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LG Corp (003550 KS)

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Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

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Sanghyun Park

LG Corp Plans to Buy 250 Billion Won of LG Chem and LG Electronics + 2 Major LG Group IPOs in 2025

On 6 January, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase 250 billion won worth of LG Electronics and LG Chem from 6 January to 7 March 2025.

Douglas Kim

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