IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Tekscend Photomask / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$828 million). Pricing is on 30 September.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203592" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203753" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price range compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$828 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price range compared to peer multiples.


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203592" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on its worrisome revenue growth trends, weakening lead revenue indicators, cash burn, and large post-IPO share overhang. </li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
In Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on its worrisome revenue growth trends, weakening lead revenue indicators, cash burn, and large post-IPO share overhang. 


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.   </li>
<li>Tekscend, which was carved out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> in 2022, is owned by Toppan (with a 50.1% stake) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral (5842 JP)</a> (with a 49.9% stake).   </li>
<li>The bull case rests on its leading market position, attractive market opportunity, stable underlying margins, net cash position, and attractive dividend policy. </li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.   
Tekscend, which was carved out of Toppan Printing (7911 JP) in 2022, is owned by Toppan (with a 50.1% stake) and Integral (5842 JP) (with a 49.9% stake).   
The bull case rests on its leading market position, attractive market opportunity, stable underlying margins, net cash position, and attractive dividend policy. 


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in LIG Nex1, Alteogen, SamsungF&amp;MIns, SK Hynix, SKC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 29th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in LIG Nex1, Alteogen, SamsungF&amp;MIns, SK Hynix, SKC.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 29th): LIG Nex1, Alteogen, Samsung F&M Ins, SK Hynix, SKC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2</a> in December.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 49 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
There are a number of stocks that will have passive flow from global index trackers over the next few weeks, while some are potential changes to the KOSPI2 in December.


KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

South Korea

LG Innotek Co., Ltd. develops and produces cellular phone parts such as mini vibration motors, LCD modules, light emitting diode (LED), camera modules, protection circuit modules. The Company also manufactures liquid crystal displays (LCD) and plasma display panels (PDP) parts such as inverters, intelligent power modules, multi chip modules, and tuners.

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Lg Innotek (011070 KS)

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Tekscend is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$828 million). My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price...

Arun George

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

Tekscend is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). I previously discussed the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.

Arun George

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Tekscend Photomask, a global leader in semiconductor photomasks, is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). In this note, I discuss...

Arun George

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 29th): LIG Nex1, Alteogen, Samsung F&M Ins, SK Hynix, SKC

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in LIG Nex1, Alteogen, SamsungF&MIns, SK Hynix, SKC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KOSPI Size Indices: Passive Flows for Many Active Changes

There could be 49 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices in Sep. Among new listings, there could be 1 LargeCap add and 3 MidCap adds. There are...

Brian Freitas

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