External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Li Auto’s 4Q24 NP beat underscored its superb cost control capabilities, which could make its profits more resilient in a more competitive 2025.</li><li>We are of the view that FY25 picture is a bit mixed for Li Auto given the rising competition.</li><li>We are less worried than the market about the sales cannibalization from BEVs, given Li Auto’s superb product positioning in the past. <em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></li></ul>

Maintain BUY. Li Auto’s 4Q24 NP beat underscored its superb cost control capabilities, which could make its profits more resilient in a more competitive 2025.We are of the view that FY25 picture is a bit mixed for Li Auto given the rising competition.We are less worried than the market about the sales cannibalization from BEVs, given Li Auto’s superb product positioning in the past. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) - Cost Control, AI as Keys to FY25 Profits, Valuation

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.</li>
<li>The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.</li>
<li>March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May. </li>
</ul>



Li Auto (2015 HK) has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.
The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.
March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May. 


Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.</li>
<li>Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. </li>
<li>Among them, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> look well-positioned to catch up.</li>
</ul>


The HSI has already recovered to 2.2% above the pre-"reciprocal tariff" level, and the top 10 best-performing constituents have registered an average return of 15.6%.
Despite so, there are still 40 under-performing stocks, with 32 of them remain in the negative zone with an average of 4.8% loss. 
Among them, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) look well-positioned to catch up.


HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>'s inclusion results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a> being deleted from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature</a> stock should drop over the near-term.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
</ul>


As expected, BYD (1211 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).

BYD (1211 HK)'s inclusion results in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index. China Literature stock should drop over the near-term.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
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Li Auto (2015 HK)

Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) - Cost Control, AI as Keys to FY25 Profits, Valuation

Maintain BUY. Li Auto’s 4Q24 NP beat underscored its superb cost control capabilities, which could make its profits more resilient in a more...

CMB International

Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 9th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) - Cost Control, AI as Keys to FY25 Profits, Valuation

Maintain BUY. Li Auto’s 4Q24 NP beat underscored its superb cost control capabilities, which could make its profits more resilient in a more...

CMB International

Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), ​Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Strategy: What Are Some of the HSI Laggards to Pick Up?

​HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto, Jd, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 9th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, AIA, Geely Auto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

With premiums of up to 9% in one month (113% p.a.), Li Auto's price surge and high implied volatility create a call selling opportunity for...

HSI has rebounded above pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with top stocks up 15.6%. However, 32 stocks remain negative, with ZTO Express, Budweiser...