Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Auto (LI) reported mixed results with C1Q25 revenue (2.9%)/2.5% vs. our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income (11%)/(3.7%) vs. our est./cons.. </li>
<li>We see two negatives going forward: (1) renewed price promotion started in March, (2) cautious remarks regarding prospects of BEV SUV launch in July. </li>
<li>We maintain SELL on LI and TP of US$20 on cautious outlook.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto (LI) reported mixed results with C1Q25 revenue (2.9%)/2.5% vs. our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income (11%)/(3.7%) vs. our est./cons.. 
We see two negatives going forward: (1) renewed price promotion started in March, (2) cautious remarks regarding prospects of BEV SUV launch in July. 
We maintain SELL on LI and TP of US$20 on cautious outlook.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches

<ul>
<li>Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable</li>
<li>We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition</li>
<li>We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)</li>
<li>Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)</li>
</ul>


Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)
Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)
1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

<ul>
<li>Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. </li>
<li>Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. </li>
<li>We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. 
Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. 
We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches

Li Auto reported mixed results in Q1 2025, with revenue and net income below expectations. Negative factors going forward include price promotions...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches

​Li Auto reported mixed results in Q1 2025, with revenue and net income below expectations. Negative factors going forward include price promotions...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

​Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

​Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

​Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Li Auto reported mixed results in Q1 2025, with revenue and net income below expectations. Negative factors going forward include price promotions...

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Central government focuses on improving livelihoods to boost consumption, but short-term impact unlikely. Our analysis of Chinese government...

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.