Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Share price under pressure due to industry challenges and transition of new product line-ups.  </li>
<li>2024 is a blip, things will normalise 2025 and deliver strong topline and bottomline growth. </li>
<li>LiAuto is trading at bargain levels for a company delivering 3-year earnings CAGR of 38%, net cash balance sheet and churns high free cash flow. </li>
</ul>


Share price under pressure due to industry challenges and transition of new product line-ups.  
2024 is a blip, things will normalise 2025 and deliver strong topline and bottomline growth. 
LiAuto is trading at bargain levels for a company delivering 3-year earnings CAGR of 38%, net cash balance sheet and churns high free cash flow. 


LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): High Growth + Deep Value Stock

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）</li>
<li>LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）
LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）
1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  </li>
<li>The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  </li>
<li>Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. </li>
</ul>


Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  
The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  
Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. 


China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>
Energy Growth: Tesla’s energy storage business surged to 9.4 GWh in Q2, a 135% increase from Q1's 4 GWh.</li>
<li>
China's Impact: Shanghai Gigafactory shipments fell 24.2% YoY in June, delivering 71,007 units amid a Chinese price war.</li>
<li>
FSD &amp; Robotaxi: Full Self-Driving price cut to $8,000 from $15,000; investors await Robotaxi Day on 8/8.</li>
</ul>



Energy Growth: Tesla’s energy storage business surged to 9.4 GWh in Q2, a 135% increase from Q1's 4 GWh.

China's Impact: Shanghai Gigafactory shipments fell 24.2% YoY in June, delivering 71,007 units amid a Chinese price war.

FSD &amp; Robotaxi: Full Self-Driving price cut to $8,000 from $15,000; investors await Robotaxi Day on 8/8.


Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Jun 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of May 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and Japanese brands.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jun 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of May 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and Japanese brands.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): High Growth + Deep Value Stock

LiAuto's share price is trading at bargain levels. 2024 is a blip, but earnings growth will resume 2025 onwards with a 3-year earnings CAGR of 38%...

Mohshin Aziz

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

Investors look forward to Tesla's Q2 earnings report on July 23rd. nergy storage business growth (up 135% QoQ to 9.4 GWh), a $25k model car, &...

Mint Finance

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): High Growth + Deep Value Stock

​LiAuto's share price is trading at bargain levels. 2024 is a blip, but earnings growth will resume 2025 onwards with a 3-year earnings CAGR of 38%...

Mohshin Aziz

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

​Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

​Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

Investors look forward to Tesla's Q2 earnings report on July 23rd. nergy storage business growth (up 135% QoQ to 9.4 GWh), a $25k model car, &...

Mint Finance

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and...

CMB International

LiAuto's share price is trading at bargain levels. 2024 is a blip, but earnings growth will resume 2025 onwards with a 3-year earnings CAGR of 38%...

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...