Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Macroeconomics

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

In their report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sky-network-television-rings-up-vodafone-in-a-bid-to-reinvent-itself-as-a-convergent-telecom-player" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4154">Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/273" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:273">Morningstar</a> looked at the details of the deal and implications for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7874" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7874">Sky Network Television</a> (SKY NZ).  The deal, as proposed and still subject to approval by Sky shareholders will result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22204" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22204">Vodafone PLC </a>holding a 51% stake in the merged entity. This despite the New Zealand market being identified as non-core by the group.We look briefly below at the implications for Vodafone PLC…

In their report Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player, Morningstar looked at the details of the deal and implications for Sky Network Television (SKY NZ).  The deal, as proposed and still subject to approval by Sky shareholders will result in Vodafone PLC holding a 51% stake in the merged entity. This despite the New Zealand market being identified as non-core by the group.We look briefly below at the implications for Vodafone PLC…

Vodafone's NZ Tie-Up with SKY May Indicate a Willingness to Deal in Australia as Well.

Event-Driven

We have been concerned that a successful deal would have unleashed "take or pay" MVNOs on the UK market creating significantly higher competitive intensity. Previously in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ck-hutchison-s-european-deals-hang-in-the-balance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3398">CK Hutchison’s European Deals Hang in the Balance</a> we had thought a deal to buy O2 could be approved but with tough (potentially unpalatable) conditions. In the end the transaction was blocked, although even this is unclear. The text of the decision says Hutch was not able to address all the DG Comp's concerns.Our view is that…

We have been concerned that a successful deal would have unleashed "take or pay" MVNOs on the UK market creating significantly higher competitive intensity. Previously in CK Hutchison’s European Deals Hang in the Balance we had thought a deal to buy O2 could be approved but with tough (potentially unpalatable) conditions. In the end the transaction was blocked, although even this is unclear. The text of the decision says Hutch was not able to address all the DG Comp's concerns.Our view is that…

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Chances that CK Hutchison’s possible appeal of the European Commission’s decision to block its UK merger with Telefonica’s O2 will succeed are scant, UK lawyers told CTFN.  An appeal will take at least a year to be decided upon, so it would almost certainly not save the deal even if Hutchison were to win.

Chances that CK Hutchison’s possible appeal of the European Commission’s decision to block its UK merger with Telefonica’s O2 will succeed are scant, UK lawyers told CTFN.  An appeal will take at least a year to be decided upon, so it would almost certainly not save the deal even if Hutchison were to win.

Hutchison Stands Slim Chance of Winning EC Appeal

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.</li><li>But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.</li><li>The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.</li><li>Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.</li><li>TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.</li></ul>

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to video streaming services like Netflix.But Internet TV will move faster and be more disruptive than analysts predict.The inflection point will be the arrival of a “pure” internet TV in which all TV viewing is accessed by a single operating system, probably remote controlled by a smartphone or tablet.Film and TV studios will see content prices bid up as technology companies – like Apple, Netflix and Alibaba – compete to acquire content rights.TV broadcasters will report profit warnings as they lose control of payTV subscription revenues and TV advertising revenues.

United Kingdom

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

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Liberty Global plc A (LBTYA US)

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

Vodafone's NZ Tie-Up with SKY May Indicate a Willingness to Deal in Australia as Well.

In their report Sky Network Television Rings Up Vodafone in a Bid to Reinvent Itself as a Convergent Telecom Player, Morningstar looked at the...

New Street Research

Hutchison Blocked in UK.

We have been concerned that a successful deal would have unleashed "take or pay" MVNOs on the UK market creating significantly higher competitive...

New Street Research

Hutchison Stands Slim Chance of Winning EC Appeal

Chances that CK Hutchison’s possible appeal of the European Commission’s decision to block its UK merger with Telefonica’s O2 will succeed are...

CTFN

Internet TV as an Investment Theme

TV broadcasters still control 93% of subscriptions and advertising revenues that pass through the TV set. The remaining 7% of revenues relates to...

CM Research

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