IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.</li>
<li>The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.</li>
<li>The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.</li>
</ul>


The Qoria (QOR AU) IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.
The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.
The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.


Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>’s update on its merger with Aura outlined a US$25 million increase in the MergerCo placement, but a lower placement price (A$0.72 to A$0.40 per QOR share).</li>
<li>The justification for the revised terms does not stand up to scrutiny. It was likely required to cover Qoria’s increasing cash burn and step back from the frothy A$0.72 valuation.</li>
<li>The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an updated implied QOR’s fair value of A$0.37.</li>
</ul>



Qoria (QOR AU)’s update on its merger with Aura outlined a US$25 million increase in the MergerCo placement, but a lower placement price (A$0.72 to A$0.40 per QOR share).
The justification for the revised terms does not stand up to scrutiny. It was likely required to cover Qoria’s increasing cash burn and step back from the frothy A$0.72 valuation.
The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an updated implied QOR’s fair value of A$0.37.


Qoria (QOR AU): Tread Carefully Despite a Favourable Risk/Reward Profile

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> provided an update on Aura’s results for the two months ended 28 February. The financial disclosure has both positives and negatives.</li>
<li>The positive is that Aura has improved its key performance indicators (KPIs) across the business. The negatives are that the D2C segment faces challenges with retention and profitability.</li>
<li>While the QOR deal valuation of A$0.72 is nonsensical, the risk/reward profile remains favourable. Based on Aura’s results, the updated implied QOR’s fair value is A$0.43.</li>
</ul>



Qoria (QOR AU) provided an update on Aura’s results for the two months ended 28 February. The financial disclosure has both positives and negatives.
The positive is that Aura has improved its key performance indicators (KPIs) across the business. The negatives are that the D2C segment faces challenges with retention and profitability.
While the QOR deal valuation of A$0.72 is nonsensical, the risk/reward profile remains favourable. Based on Aura’s results, the updated implied QOR’s fair value is A$0.43.


Qoria (QOR AU): Takeaways from Aura’s Results

<ul>
<li>On 2 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> entered a merger with Aura at 1 Aura CDI per 17.2 QOR share. The implied offer price per QOR share is A$0.72.</li>
<li>While the scheme vote is low risk, the gross spread is massive due to the SaaS market sell-off and warranted scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation.</li>
<li>However, my analysis suggests the risk/reward profile is favourable. If MergeCo trades in line with SaaS peers, it implies a QOR fair value of A$0.40, 30% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>


On 2 February, Qoria (QOR AU) entered a merger with Aura at 1 Aura CDI per 17.2 QOR share. The implied offer price per QOR share is A$0.72.
While the scheme vote is low risk, the gross spread is massive due to the SaaS market sell-off and warranted scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation.
However, my analysis suggests the risk/reward profile is favourable. If MergeCo trades in line with SaaS peers, it implies a QOR fair value of A$0.40, 30% premium to last close.


Qoria (QOR AU): Risk/Reward in the Aftermath of SaaStrophe

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

United States

Life360, Inc. designs and develops technological products. The Company offers mobile application for multi-channel messaging and tracking platform for family communication, lost item retrieving, and medical treatment services. Life360 serves customers in the United States.

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Life360 Inc (360 AU)

Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing. The high-end of the IE MergerCo valuation...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Tread Carefully Despite a Favourable Risk/Reward Profile

The revised terms raise red flags, particularly on MergerCo’s cash flow and valuation. However, the risk/reward profile remains favourable, with an...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Takeaways from Aura’s Results

Aura's results for the two months ended 28 February have both positives and negatives. The risk/reward profile remains favourable. The updated...

Arun George

Qoria (QOR AU): Risk/Reward in the Aftermath of SaaStrophe

The risk/reward profile is favourable. Scepticism about the stated MergerCo valuation is warranted. My QOR fair value implied by the offer is...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT CORPORATION...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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