Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a> received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.</li>
<li>The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure. </li>
<li>The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “<em>best and final</em>” wording leaves room for a higher bid. </li>
</ul>



Ingenia Communities (INA AU) received a revised Warburg Pincus proposal at A$5.25, a 4.0% premium to the prior A$5.05 offer and 22.7% to the undisturbed price. The Board is assessing it.
The offer implies only a modest control premium to sell-side price targets and peer multiples, but a third outright rejection would be hard to justify amid mounting shareholder pressure. 
The offer lapses on Friday 2 October unless the Board grants due diligence. I expect engagement, and no “best and final” wording leaves room for a higher bid. 


Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a> has rejected a revised NBIO from Warburg Pincus at A$5.05, a 6.3% premium to its previous A$4.75 offer and an 18.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The Board has justification for rejecting the latest offer, as it implies a modest control premium relative to sell-side price targets and peer multiples. </li>
<li>Despite the rejection, Warburg is likely to return with at least another offer (possibly around A$5.25) as it is signalling an intent to keep negotiating. </li>
</ul>



Ingenia Communities (INA AU) has rejected a revised NBIO from Warburg Pincus at A$5.05, a 6.3% premium to its previous A$4.75 offer and an 18.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has justification for rejecting the latest offer, as it implies a modest control premium relative to sell-side price targets and peer multiples. 
Despite the rejection, Warburg is likely to return with at least another offer (possibly around A$5.25) as it is signalling an intent to keep negotiating. 


Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Revised Offer Rejected, but the Gap to Fair Value Narrows

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

Australia

Lifestyle Communities Ltd Limited provides resort style housing for individuals in their fifties and older.

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Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Third Offer at A$5.25 Puts the Board on the Clock

Warburg's A$5.25 offer (4.0% above A$5.05) carries a modest premium, but rejection looks hard amid shareholder pressure. It lapses on 2 Oct without...

Arun George

Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s Revised Offer Rejected, but the Gap to Fair Value Narrows

The AFR reports that Warburg Pincus lodged a 3rd bid for Ingenia (5–10% above the rejected A$5.05), after A$4.75 and A$5.05 offers were both...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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