Head of Asia, Lucror Analytics

Charles Macgregor

Head of Asia

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lifestyle International Holdings / Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8205'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7755'>Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-112'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China South CityKawasan Industri JababekaLifestyle International Holdings

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Lifestyle International's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental and Social scores. The company has a "Weak" score for the Governance pillar. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Adequate".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Lifestyle International's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental and Social scores. The company has a "Weak" score for the Governance pillar. Controversies are "Material", but Disclosure is "Adequate". 

Lifestyle International - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

China Analyst - Equity Long-Short, Onshore Credit

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our earnings projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.</li>
<li>At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.</li>
<li>Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.</li>
</ul>


Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.
Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

We have expressed our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong.

We have expressed our positive view on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) in various Insights previously. In this Insight, we look at the proposed H-share IPO from the perspective of investors who do not know it well. For seasoned investors in this name, this Insight serves as a summary of our views and provides background details on the proposed IPO.Fundamentally speaking, the key positives for CTG Duty Free are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook, and 3.) solid profitability and financial position. Key negatives are: 1.) policy risk and rising competition, 2.) concern on payback of new projects, and 3.) risk of overseas expansion. If the IPO is being priced at the current average H-A discount, it will be on 32.7x FY21F PER, we see this not expensive relative to the premium retailers listed in Hong Kong. 

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th May, PRC department store play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-retail-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:470:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle (3308 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.</li>
<li>The Offeror is the Wang family, who together with concert parties, held 80.29%. 7.18% of the 19.71% held by the disinterested stakeholders have given irrevocables in favour of the Scheme.</li>
<li>Ahead of the Scheme Meeting on September 15th, a significant amount of shares have moved out of CCASS. This is not something to concern investors. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th May, PRC department store play Golden Eagle (3308 HK) announced a privatisation offer, by way of a Scheme, at $6.88/share, a 40.41% premium to last close.
The Offeror is the Wang family, who together with concert parties, held 80.29%. 7.18% of the 19.71% held by the disinterested stakeholders have given irrevocables in favour of the Scheme.
Ahead of the Scheme Meeting on September 15th, a significant amount of shares have moved out of CCASS. This is not something to concern investors. 


Golden Eagle (3308 HK): CCASS Movements Are Standard Fare

Hong Kong

Lifestyle International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates lifestyle department store and other retail outlets.  The Company also owns most of the properties at which its department store is situated.  At present, Lifestyle International operates the Sogo store, Nufront, and Daiso Land Ten-dollar Shop in Hong Kong.

Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lifestyle International - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Lifestyle International's...

Lucror Analytics

Golden Eagle (3308 HK): CCASS Movements Are Standard Fare

There's probably enough here for the deal to get up. But with a <2% gross spread and mindful of the recent AGAINST vote in the Dali Foods Group...

David Blennerhassett

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lifestyle International - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Lifestyle International's...

Lucror Analytics

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

CDFC's H-share lPO is priced too high relative to fair value based on our earnings forecasts. There are potentially better entry levels when the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share Pre-IPO: Fundamentally Speaking

In relation to CTG Duty Free's H-share IPO, key positives are: 1.) absolute leadership in China's duty free market, 2.) encouraging growth outlook,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Golden Eagle (3308 HK): CCASS Movements Are Standard Fare

There's probably enough here for the deal to get up. But with a <2% gross spread and mindful of the recent AGAINST vote in the Dali Foods Group...

David Blennerhassett