Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.</li>
<li>After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.</li>
<li>The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday. </li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday. 


[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event - Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.</li>
<li>The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days. </li>
<li>This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track. </li>
</ul>


In August, Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) / Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days. 
This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track. 


[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Index trackers will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US)</a> at the close on 12 November. The buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU)</a> is a lot smaller.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> trades at a much lower forward PE compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aristocrat-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10303:1" rel="noopener">Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU)</a> and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU). 
Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.

Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.


Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 25): Changes Across Indices as Positioning Picks Up

David Blennerhassett

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's fair bet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Matheson (JM SP)</a> opted for a Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a>'s dissentient shareholders.</li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US)</a> giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. </li>
<li>Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> moves to take out its 9.57% stake. </li>
</ul>


It's fair bet Matheson (JM SP) opted for a Scheme for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded Jardine Strategic (JS SP)'s dissentient shareholders.
On Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US) giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. 
Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) moves to take out its 9.57% stake. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

United States

Light & Wonder Inc. provides gambling products and services. The Company creates content and products for land-based casino gaming, social, and digital organizations. Light & Wonder serves customers worldwide.

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Light & Wonder (LNW AU)

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event - Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

The company announced a change in buyback pace which is meaningful. A large holder bought a little more. Index treatment appears to have more US...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event

Light & Wonder in August announced plans to delist from the US and move its primary listing to Australia where it has a secondary CDI listing. That...

Travis Lundy