Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.</li>
<li>China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.
</li>
</ul>


The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.
China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.</li>
<li>Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.</li>
<li>As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio outperformed its benchmark and all Hong Kong indexes in 2025 with an overall gain of 48.41%.  The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.86.
Alpha generation represented 59% of the portfolio's gains in 2025.  Most of this came from the materials, healthcare, and energy sectors.  HKALPHA had low exposure to the real estate sector.
As the Hong Kong market ends its consolidation, we added tech exposure at the end of the year and reduced underperforming positions in mostly in the utility sector.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. </li>
<li>The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.</li>
<li>The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.</li>
</ul>


Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. 
The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.


<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23% since inception.</li>
<li>At the end of June, we sold positions in the tech sector after substantial gains. The portfolio's exposure to the consumption sector was also trimmed, both discretionary and staples.</li>
<li>The portfolio added exposure to the metals refining sector and initiated positions in conglomerates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-industrial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1447:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Industrial Holdings (363 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23% since inception.
At the end of June, we sold positions in the tech sector after substantial gains. The portfolio's exposure to the consumption sector was also trimmed, both discretionary and staples.
The portfolio added exposure to the metals refining sector and initiated positions in conglomerates Shanghai Industrial Holdings (363 HK) and Citic Ltd (267 HK) .


Hong Kong

Lingbao Gold Group is a comprehensive gold enterprise primarily engaged in gold mining, smelting, and refining, producing gold bullion, silver, copper products, and sulphuric acid. The company also engages in the sale of mineral products, jewelry, and mine engineering. It was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in China.

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Lingbao Gold Group (3330 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Gold: YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET!

In April 2024 we published "Gold's Next Leg Up and Why It Matters". Gold was at $2k/oz at the writing. We followed that with "GOLD: Rocks or...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio (June 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23%...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (December 2025)

We have made several mid-month adjustments to the portfolio. We sold Sinofert (297), ENN Energy (2688) and Power Assets (6). We added positions in...

David Mudd

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

Gold: YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET!

In April 2024 we published "Gold's Next Leg Up and Why It Matters". Gold was at $2k/oz at the writing. We followed that with "GOLD: Rocks or...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio (June 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23%...

David Mudd

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.