Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

<ul>
<li>We identify stocks likely to be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in the upcoming review and, in turn, become eligible for Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Using market cap, free float and liquidity screens, we compile a preliminary list of potential inclusion candidates ahead of the review cut-off.</li>
<li>A follow-up note will focus on which inclusion candidates are most likely to translate eligibility into actionable trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We identify stocks likely to be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in the upcoming review and, in turn, become eligible for Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Using market cap, free float and liquidity screens, we compile a preliminary list of potential inclusion candidates ahead of the review cut-off.
A follow-up note will focus on which inclusion candidates are most likely to translate eligibility into actionable trading opportunities.


HSCI / Hong Kong Connect Inclusion (March 2026): A Preliminary Assessment

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (601899 CH)</a>'s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold's listing has been ~21%. </li>
<li>Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, Zijin Mining (601899 CH)'s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold's listing has been ~21%. 
Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

China Gold International Resources / Index Rebalance

China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)

<ul>
<li>Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gold-international-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26130:1" rel="noopener">China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)</a> over the last couple of months.</li>
<li>The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gold-international-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26130:1" rel="noopener">China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.</li>
</ul>


Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.

China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.


China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Hong Kong

Lingbao Gold Group is a comprehensive gold enterprise primarily engaged in gold mining, smelting, and refining, producing gold bullion, silver, copper products, and sulphuric acid. The company also engages in the sale of mineral products, jewelry, and mine engineering. It was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in China.

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Lingbao Gold Group (3330 HK)

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

HSCI / Hong Kong Connect Inclusion (March 2026): A Preliminary Assessment

We assess stocks potentially eligible for inclusion in the upcoming HSCI review and outline the resulting Hong Kong Stock Connect eligibility...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

Zijin Mining is trading rich. As is Zijin Gold. I'd be taking down borrow in Zijin Mining and look to short when this turns. Oddly - Zijin Gold is...

David Blennerhassett

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

China Gold should be added to a global index in November. The stock trades cheaper than peers. There is positioning but strong gold prices and...

Brian Freitas

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