Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.</li>
<li>Expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a> to re-rate after the spinoff. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.
Expect Keppel (KEP SP) to re-rate after the spinoff. The Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND is a persistent bidder and returned with a A$1.27 billion bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>’s CM and BCM businesses. The Board will update next week. </li>
<li>The latest offer is attractive but curiously, contradicts DND’s previous comments that the FCA would make it challenging to distribute any part sale proceeds.</li>
<li>Despite the overhang from the FCA fine, DND’s ongoing persistence and the Board’s potential in-specie distribution of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> stake highlight the underlying value.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND is a persistent bidder and returned with a A$1.27 billion bid for Link Administration (LNK AU)’s CM and BCM businesses. The Board will update next week. 
The latest offer is attractive but curiously, contradicts DND’s previous comments that the FCA would make it challenging to distribute any part sale proceeds.
Despite the overhang from the FCA fine, DND’s ongoing persistence and the Board’s potential in-specie distribution of the PEXA Group (PXA AU) stake highlight the underlying value.


Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value

<ul>
<li>In a Musk/Twitter-like on/off/on-again situation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> announced it received an improved offer for its corporate markets and Banking &amp; Credit Management (BCM) businesses from Dye &amp; Durham.</li>
<li>Separately, Link is working with the Australian Tax Office on the in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link's holding into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Link are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


In a Musk/Twitter-like on/off/on-again situation, Link Administration (LNK AU) announced it received an improved offer for its corporate markets and Banking &amp; Credit Management (BCM) businesses from Dye &amp; Durham.
Separately, Link is working with the Australian Tax Office on the in-specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link's holding into PEXA Group (PXA AU).
Preceding my comments on Link are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Following the termination of the proposed scheme with Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> is working towards a potential in-specie distribution of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> owns 42.8% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> and intends to distribute at least 80% of its holding following ATO tax roll-over relief.</li>
<li>The increased float will put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> firmly in the running for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> membership where passive trackers will need to buy a lot of stock.</li>
</ul>


Following the termination of the proposed scheme with Dye &amp; Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) is working towards a potential in-specie distribution of PEXA Group (PXA AU) shares.

Link Administration (LNK AU) owns 42.8% of PEXA Group (PXA AU) and intends to distribute at least 80% of its holding following ATO tax roll-over relief.
The increased float will put PEXA Group (PXA AU) firmly in the running for S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) membership where passive trackers will need to buy a lot of stock.


Link Admin's In-Specie Distribution of PEXA: Potential ASX200 Inclusion

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU).
Lowest spreads  OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB).


Merger Arb Mondays (03 Oct) - Genex, Pendal, Alliance Aviation, Fengxiang, Lifestyle Intl, VNET, 111

Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Link’s Ongoing Overtures from DND Underscore Its Value

DND’s latest offer and the Board’s perusal of the in-specie distribution of the PEXA stake were the catalysts required to highlight the underlying...

Arun George

StubWorld: Link And D&D Continue Negotiations On Unlisted Ops

I'd be buying Link Administration here. Then I'd buy some more. Link is up 6% as I type. I think it should go up a lot more.

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin's In-Specie Distribution of PEXA: Potential ASX200 Inclusion

Link Group is working on getting ATO tax rollover relief for an in-specie distribution of PEXA of at least 80% of its holding. The increased float...

Brian Freitas

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Oct) - Genex, Pendal, Alliance Aviation, Fengxiang, Lifestyle Intl, VNET, 111

This week, the highest gross spreads are Fengxiang (62.8%), Alliance Aviation (53.2%), VNET (45.5%), 111 (36.6%), Genex Power (16.3%), Pendal...

Arun George

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