Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The regulator has proposed a significant cut to digital conveyancer Pexa Group&rsquo;s service fees but the company intends to fight back.</li><li> Regulator&rsquo;s proposed cuts hit Pexa Group&rsquo;s revenues by -20% Draft report only, some wind-back is possible Pexa will contest the changes Forecasts and valuations are downgraded</li></ul>

The regulator has proposed a significant cut to digital conveyancer Pexa Group&rsquo;s service fees but the company intends to fight back. Regulator&rsquo;s proposed cuts hit Pexa Group&rsquo;s revenues by -20% Draft report only, some wind-back is possible Pexa will contest the changes Forecasts and valuations are downgraded

Pexa To Contest Major Revenue Hit In Australia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> merger should complete mid-November while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>'s acquisition could complete by end-November.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.</li>
<li>Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)/ Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) merger should complete mid-November while Steadfast (SDF AU)'s acquisition could complete by end-November.
There will be ad hoc inclusions for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index following the merger and the acquisition to maintain the number of index constituents.
Then there will be more changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.</li>
<li>There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.
There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 11th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Light &amp; Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery, Nextdc, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 11th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Light &amp; Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery, Nextdc, Sigma Pharmaceuticals.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 11th): Light & Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Australia

PEXA Group Limited operates the property exchange network. The Company provides a robust, resilient, and cloud-based platform that connects financial institutions, practitioner firms, the reserve bank of Australia, land titles, and state revenue offices to enable the digital lodgment and settlement of property transactions collaborate to prepare for settlements.

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PEXA Group (PXA AU)

Pexa To Contest Major Revenue Hit In Australia

The regulator has proposed a significant cut to digital conveyancer Pexa Group’s service fees but the company intends to fight back. Regulator’s...

FNArena

S&P/ASX Indices: M&A-Driven Ad Hoc Changes in Nov & Impact on the Dec Rebalance

The Genesis/Vault merger and the Steadfast acquisition are expected to complete in Nov. That leads to adhoc index inclusions and other flows. Then...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Although we currently see zero changes for ASX 50, there are multiple potential DELs close to the deletion border. If they underperform other...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 11th): Light & Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive Discovery

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Light & Wonder, Northern Star Resources, Predictive...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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