Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>Short seller Valiant Varriors may not have hard facts to accuse <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linklogis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31126:1" rel="noopener">Linklogis (9959 HK)</a> of clear fraud apart from minor violations of the law by some of the subsidiaries. However, the underlying factor that the short seller highlight is that Linklogis is nothing but a glorified mortgage broker (not a tech-enabled cloud software as a service platform), relying on cheap human labour instead of AI to do the work.</p><p>Linklogis fooled many investors, including the biggest investment managers and technology companies like Tencent, portraying itself as a technology company when it was really a mortgage broker. The Chinese government is currently on high alert about these issues in overseas listings and it is possible that Linklogis might result in an extension of crackdowns to Hong Kong and the domestic exchanges.</p><p>Valiant Varriors also highlights that Linklogis has consistently lied about its large exposure to the risky real estate market, violated laws related to factoring companies, exaggerated technology capabilities, evaded tax and misled investors by overstating revenues.</p><p>We believe all these are very series allegations, and it is hard to refute the basis of the short seller’s arguments and some of the evidence presented.</p>

Short seller Valiant Varriors may not have hard facts to accuse Linklogis (9959 HK) of clear fraud apart from minor violations of the law by some of the subsidiaries. However, the underlying factor that the short seller highlight is that Linklogis is nothing but a glorified mortgage broker (not a tech-enabled cloud software as a service platform), relying on cheap human labour instead of AI to do the work.Linklogis fooled many investors, including the biggest investment managers and technology companies like Tencent, portraying itself as a technology company when it was really a mortgage broker. The Chinese government is currently on high alert about these issues in overseas listings and it is possible that Linklogis might result in an extension of crackdowns to Hong Kong and the domestic exchanges.Valiant Varriors also highlights that Linklogis has consistently lied about its large exposure to the risky real estate market, violated laws related to factoring companies, exaggerated technology capabilities, evaded tax and misled investors by overstating revenues.We believe all these are very series allegations, and it is hard to refute the basis of the short seller’s arguments and some of the evidence presented.

Short Seller, Valiant Varriors Says Linklogis Is a Glorified Mortgage Broker

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK)</a> raised US$656m at HK$19.80 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Nayuki is the operator of Nayuki teahouses, a premium modern teahouse chain in China. The company had a network of 491 Nayuki teahouses across 61 cities in China as of December 2020. As per CIC, Nayuki is the most extensive premium modern teahouse network in China in terms of the number of cities covered.</p>
<p>In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-pre-ipo-fast-growing-cash-flow-positive-teahouse-chain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49798" rel="noopener">Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Fast-Growing, Cash Flow Positive Teahouse Chain</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-pre-ipo-phip-updates-4q20-results-shows-improvement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52793" rel="noopener">Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - 4Q20 Results Shows Improvement</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-pre-ipo-industry-landscape-and-peer-comparison" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52797" rel="noopener">Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape and Peer Comparison</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-pre-ipo-forecast-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52992" rel="noopener">Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Forecast and Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-ipo-not-cheap-but-should-still-do-well" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53247" rel="noopener">Nayuki (奈雪) IPO - Not Cheap but Should Still Do Well</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK) raised US$656m at HK$19.80 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range.


Nayuki is the operator of Nayuki teahouses, a premium modern teahouse chain in China. The company had a network of 491 Nayuki teahouses across 61 cities in China as of December 2020. As per CIC, Nayuki is the most extensive premium modern teahouse network in China in terms of the number of cities covered.
In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.


We had previously covered the IPO in:




Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Fast-Growing, Cash Flow Positive Teahouse Chain 

Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - 4Q20 Results Shows Improvement 

Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape and Peer Comparison 

Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO - Forecast and Thoughts on Valuation 

Nayuki (奈雪) IPO - Not Cheap but Should Still Do Well 



Nayuki (奈雪) IPO Trading - Good Demand

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.</p><p>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.</p><p>The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.</p>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858 HK)</a> (CYD) raised about US$643m at HK$6.98 per share, the bottom-end of its IPO price range. </p>
<p>CYD is an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry. The company is a leader in the various upstream industries that it operates in even though they are mostly fragmented.</p>
<p>In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.</p>
<p>We have previously covered the IPO in:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-youran-dairy-pre-ipo-a-leader-pulling-ahead-in-a-fragmented-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - A Leader Pulling Ahead in a Fragmented Market<br></a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-youran-dairy-pre-ipo-phip-updates-much-better-disclosure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51794" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Much Better Disclosure</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-youran-dairy-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-youran-is-the-leader" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51796" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Youran Is the Leader</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-youran-dairy-ipo-reasonable-valuation-but-there-will-be-significant-overhang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52634" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) IPO - Reasonable Valuation but There Will Be Significant Overhang</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858 HK) (CYD) raised about US$643m at HK$6.98 per share, the bottom-end of its IPO price range. 
CYD is an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry. The company is a leader in the various upstream industries that it operates in even though they are mostly fragmented.
In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.
We have previously covered the IPO in:



China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - A Leader Pulling Ahead in a Fragmented Market 

China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Much Better Disclosure 

China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Youran Is the Leader 

China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) IPO - Reasonable Valuation but There Will Be Significant Overhang 



China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) IPO Trading - Weak Demand

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> raised US$3.1bn at HK$40.36 per share, close to the bottom-end of its price range in its Hong Kong IPO. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-updated-index-implications-and-impact-on-jd-com-holdco-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51591" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO - Updated Index Implications and Impact on JD.com (京东) HoldCo Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-widening-its-lead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51583" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO - Widening Its Lead</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-index-implications-it-will-cut-close" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51054" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Index Implications - It Will Cut Close</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-quick-note-new-phip-with-1q21-results-changes-narrative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51453" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Quick Note - New PHIP with 1Q21 Results Changes Narrative</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-phip-updates-and-fine-tuning-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51008" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50953" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


JD Logistics (2618 HK) raised US$3.1bn at HK$40.36 per share, close to the bottom-end of its price range in its Hong Kong IPO. 


JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. 


In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics and update valuation.


We had previously covered the IPO in:




JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO - Updated Index Implications and Impact on JD.com (京东) HoldCo Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO - Widening Its Lead 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Index Implications - It Will Cut Close 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Quick Note - New PHIP with 1Q21 Results Changes Narrative 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 



JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO Trading - Decent Demand + Updates to JD.com Valuation

Hong Kong

Linklogis Inc operates as a technology solution provider. The company develops cloud native solutions and supply chain finance technology solutions which optimize the payment cycle of supply chain transactions and digitalize the entire workflow of supply chain finance. Linklogis provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Linklogis (9959 HK)

Short Seller, Valiant Varriors Says Linklogis Is a Glorified Mortgage Broker

The findings of Valiant Varriors are not necessarily new, but many investors/analysts, including us, failed to notice them and fell right into a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nayuki (奈雪) IPO Trading - Good Demand

Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK) raised US$656m at HK$19.80 per share, the top-end of its IPO price range. Nayuki is the operator of Nayuki teahouses, a...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Currently we see 28 potential inclusions & 22 deletions from the HSCI at the Sep rebalance. Most of the inclusions will join Stock Connect while...

Brian Freitas

China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) IPO Trading - Weak Demand

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858 HK) (CYD) raised about US$643m at HK$6.98 per share, the bottom-end of its IPO price range.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO Trading - Decent Demand + Updates to JD.com Valuation

JD Logistics (2618 HK) is raised US$3.1bn at HK$40.36 per share, close to the bottom-end of its price range in its Hong Kong IPO.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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