Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 24th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 24th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 24th): CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus

<ul>
<li>On the 6 August, Canada's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25818:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp (SVM CN)</a> offered shareholders of Western Australian-based miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">OreCorp (ORR AU)</a> A$0.15 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet was despatched on the 6 November with a Scheme Meeting on the 8 December. The IE viewed terms as fair. </li>
<li>Silvercorp has now <a href="https://orecorp.com.au/upload/documents/investor/asx/231122230923_231122SilvercorpandOreCorpagreetoincreasedSchemeConsiderationcurrent.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> the cash terms to $0.19/share from $0.15/share. All other terms remain unchanged. Tim Goyder (5.14%) is now supportive. Done and done. </li>
</ul>


On the 6 August, Canada's Silvercorp (SVM CN) offered shareholders of Western Australian-based miner OreCorp (ORR AU) A$0.15 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares, by way of a Scheme.
The Scheme Booklet was despatched on the 6 November with a Scheme Meeting on the 8 December. The IE viewed terms as fair. 
Silvercorp has now bumped the cash terms to $0.19/share from $0.15/share. All other terms remain unchanged. Tim Goyder (5.14%) is now supportive. Done and done. 


OreCorp: Silvercorp Bumps. Goyder Now Supportive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. </li>
<li>And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. </li>
<li>African-Focused lithium play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40322:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)</a> announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.</li>
</ul>



Livent (LTHM US)'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. 
And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.


Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

Australia

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

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Liontown Resources (LTR AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 24th): CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

OreCorp: Silvercorp Bumps. Goyder Now Supportive

If small, cross-border arbs are your thing, look to short Silvercorp (where available) late in the US day, and buy OreCorp early in the AU day. Or...

David Blennerhassett

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

If small, illiquid M&A plays are your thing, I'd probably be picking up shares here. I think Assore will bump. Or second-largest shareholder...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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