Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.</li><li>Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.</li><li><p>We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.</p></li></ul>

Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37086:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas (LAC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36776:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Lithium (SGML)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Piedmont Lithium (PLL US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 21 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.
The largest inflows will be in Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU), Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US), Lithium Americas (LAC US) and Sigma Lithium (SGML).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Investigative Investment Research, Bleecker Street Capital

Bleecker Street Research

Investigative Investment Research

Bleecker Street Capital

Bleecker Street Capital is a short-biased investment firm.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LAC is a pre-revenue junior miner with aspirations to turn its lithium clay deposit at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada into the world’s sixth-largest lithium producer by 2028, eventually rising to 25% of global supply. </li><li>LAC’s Thacker Pass mine is grossly uneconomic. Using the company’s own inputs, Thacker Pass has an NPV of zero at current lithium prices, which remain far above long-term averages.</li><li>The Thacker Pass mine is a clay deposit mine. There does not appear to be a single operational lithium clay mine globally. Experts agree that extracting lithium from clay does not work using reasonable output price assumptions.</li></ul>

LAC is a pre-revenue junior miner with aspirations to turn its lithium clay deposit at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada into the world’s sixth-largest lithium producer by 2028, eventually rising to 25% of global supply. LAC’s Thacker Pass mine is grossly uneconomic. Using the company’s own inputs, Thacker Pass has an NPV of zero at current lithium prices, which remain far above long-term averages.The Thacker Pass mine is a clay deposit mine. There does not appear to be a single operational lithium clay mine globally. Experts agree that extracting lithium from clay does not work using reasonable output price assumptions.

Lithium Americas (LAC ): From Dust To Dust

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.</li>
<li>We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.</li>
<li>Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.</li>
</ul>


2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books.
We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended discussion of our investments in lithium and the outlook for the sector in the coming years.
Despite dire headlines related to EVs, we remain optimistic about a lithium rebound and skeptical that supply can grow as robustly as projected.


2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> shareholders approved the Scheme and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.</li>
<li>NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.</li>
<li>But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

Canada

Lithium Americas Corp. operates as a mining company. The Company mines, produces, and supplies lithium. Lithium Americas conducts its business operations in Argentina and Canada.

Price Gauge
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Lithium Americas (LAC US)

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Core Lithium and Piedmont Lithium will be deleted from the index in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a 1-way trade of US$28m....

Brian Freitas

Lithium Americas (LAC ): From Dust To Dust

LAC is a pre-revenue junior miner with aspirations to turn its lithium clay deposit at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada into the world’s sixth...

Bleecker Street Research

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Core Lithium and Piedmont Lithium will be deleted from the index in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a 1-way trade of US$28m....

Brian Freitas

Lithium Americas (LAC ): From Dust To Dust

LAC is a pre-revenue junior miner with aspirations to turn its lithium clay deposit at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada into the world’s sixth...

Bleecker Street Research

2023 4th Qtr Letter to Investors: A Deep Dive into Lithium

2023 was a challenging year, there was a lot of volatility in both long and short books. We reserve the bulk of the letter for an extended...

Massif Capital Research

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes