Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.</li>
<li>Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.</li>
<li>Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.</li>
</ul>


Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.


Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/almonty-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23864:1" rel="noopener">Almonty Industries (AII CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hubei-zhenhua-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30013:1" rel="noopener">Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in December.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.</li>
<li>There have been large creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.</li>
</ul>



Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX Limited (IPX AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iperionx-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30710:1" rel="noopener">IperionX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle</a>, while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/patriot-battery-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36822:1" rel="noopener">Patriot Battery Metals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amg-critical-materials-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40462:1" rel="noopener">AMG Critical Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas</a>.</li>
</ul>



IperionX Limited (IPX AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) and Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN) will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.
The largest inflows will be in IperionX, Iluka Resources and Albemarle, while the largest outflows will be from Patriot Battery Metals, AMG Critical Materials, Shenghe Resources and Lithium Americas.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

Canada

Lithium Americas Corp. operates as a mining company. The Company mines, produces, and supplies lithium. Lithium Americas conducts its business operations in Argentina and Canada.

Price Gauge
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Lithium Americas (LAC US)

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

​Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

The inclusion of IperionX, deletion of Patriot Battery Metals, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a...

Brian Freitas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes