Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

StubHub Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>StubHub Holdings, the world’s leading live event marketplace, is expected to price its initial public offering on Tuesday.</li>
<li>The 20+ times oversubscribed offering may raise up to ~$850M at the high end of the range at $25.00 per share.</li>
<li>The American online ticketing giant plans to use net proceeds from the offering to repay ~$550M of existing indebtedness outstanding.</li>
</ul>


StubHub Holdings, the world’s leading live event marketplace, is expected to price its initial public offering on Tuesday.
The 20+ times oversubscribed offering may raise up to ~$850M at the high end of the range at $25.00 per share.
The American online ticketing giant plans to use net proceeds from the offering to repay ~$550M of existing indebtedness outstanding.


StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.</li>
<li>But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.</li>
<li>It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.</li>
</ul>


The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.
But it works in reverse too.  Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.
It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.


A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

<ul>
<li>StubHub Holdings is expected to IPO in September. The online ticketing giant did not disclose the proposed size and price range for the share sale.</li>
<li>According to the WSJ and CNBC, StubHub Holdings was eyeing a valuation of about $16.5B, implying the richest valuation among peers in the secondary ticketing market.</li>
<li>While I’m bullish on the market opportunity for StubHub Holdings, ~$16.5B IPO valuation forces me to remain on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


StubHub Holdings is expected to IPO in September. The online ticketing giant did not disclose the proposed size and price range for the share sale.
According to the WSJ and CNBC, StubHub Holdings was eyeing a valuation of about $16.5B, implying the richest valuation among peers in the secondary ticketing market.
While I’m bullish on the market opportunity for StubHub Holdings, ~$16.5B IPO valuation forces me to remain on the sidelines.


StubHub IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Justified, But The Growth Is Slowing Down

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HSI poised to break 25k for first time since 2022.  Next resistance 27100.  Hong Kong market outperforming global markets by wide margin since our BUY was initiated in March 2024.</li>
<li>Financial, materials and healthcare sectors leading the market higher as tech sector consolidates.  China shares still offer the best valuation metrics in Asia.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a> , renamed Damai Entertainment has seen increased analyst attention as the company becomes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment, Inc (LYV US)</a> of China.
</li>
</ul>


HSI poised to break 25k for first time since 2022.  Next resistance 27100.  Hong Kong market outperforming global markets by wide margin since our BUY was initiated in March 2024.
Financial, materials and healthcare sectors leading the market higher as tech sector consolidates.  China shares still offer the best valuation metrics in Asia.

Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) , renamed Damai Entertainment has seen increased analyst attention as the company becomes the Live Nation Entertainment, Inc (LYV US) of China.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27537:1" rel="noopener">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tko-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40463:1" rel="noopener">TKO Group Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

United States

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

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Live Nation Entertainment, Inc (LYV US)

StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity

In my insight, I focus on in-depth analysis of valuation comps, examine post-IPO trading scenario and dive deeper into the business of...

Andrei Zakharov

A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

The top 10% account for around 50% of consumer spending in the US. This insight looks at the sectors and companies that could win and lose from the...

Finimize Research

StubHub IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Justified, But The Growth Is Slowing Down

In my follow-up piece, I discuss key investment risks, valuation comps and competitive landscape in the U.S. ticketing industry

Andrei Zakharov

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (JULY 21)

HSI poised to break 25k for first time since 2022. Next resistance 27100. Hong Kong market outperforming global markets by wide margin since our...

David Mudd

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

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