Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>On average, </p>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  </p>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. </p>
<p>Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are now at 52-week wides. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.</p>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
</div>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 

On average, 
The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  
Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. 
Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are now at 52-week wides. 

Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.





For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK)</a> is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals.  At the proposed IPO price range of HK$12.10-13.70 per share, Simcere will have a market cap of HK$31,528.8-35,697.9 million ($4.1-4.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Simcere will raise net proceeds of HK$3,191.3 million ($412 million). </p></div><div id="ember2866">Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for 43.81% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range. The cornerstone investors are Hillhouse Capital, Jiangbei Investment Group, Shenzhen Capital Group, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Sage Partners and Jericho Capital. </div><div id="ember2871"></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/simcere-pharmaceutical-ipo-initiation-a-rough-patch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we highlighted that for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the weak 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. Overall, we think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div></div></div>

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals.  At the proposed IPO price range of HK$12.10-13.70 per share, Simcere will have a market cap of HK$31,528.8-35,697.9 million ($4.1-4.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Simcere will raise net proceeds of HK$3,191.3 million ($412 million). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for 43.81% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range. The cornerstone investors are Hillhouse Capital, Jiangbei Investment Group, Shenzhen Capital Group, Lake Bleu Capital, OrbiMed, Sage Partners and Jericho Capital. In our initiation note, we highlighted that for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the weak 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. Overall, we think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range. 

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SIMCERE HK)</a> is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals. The products are focused on three main therapeutic areas which are oncology (including cell therapy), central nervous system diseases and autoimmune diseases. Simcere will shortly launch a Hong Kong IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The timing of the IPO is not ideal as Simcere is coming off a weak 1H20. However, for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. </p></div>

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SIMCERE HK) is engaged in the R&amp;D, production and commercialisation of pharmaceuticals and is primarily focused on generic pharmaceuticals. The products are focused on three main therapeutic areas which are oncology (including cell therapy), central nervous system diseases and autoimmune diseases. Simcere will shortly launch a Hong Kong IPO to raise $500 million, according to press reports.  The timing of the IPO is not ideal as Simcere is coming off a weak 1H20. However, for investors willing to look past the 2020 results, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the 1H20 was an exception rather than the rule. 

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO Initiation: A Rough Patch?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and <span>suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.</span></p>

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the same time, after this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of this initial low - and oftentimes we get an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 we are of the belief that we will get an eventual test of this initial low and potentially an undercut. In this report we highlight key technical levels and indicators to watch and suggest investment opportunities with defensive and/or growth characteristics. We are also expanding our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Event-Driven

<div>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">On the 29 December 2017, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's ("CSRC") <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwfbh/201712/t20171229_329955.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would launch the H-share Full Circulation Pilot Project in which participating companies would be allowed to convert certain of their domestic shares into H shares, which would then be eligible to be listed and traded on Hong Kong's stock exchange. Up to three companies were expected to be selected in the pilot scheme.</p>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">Back in June 2018, I discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/c7hcH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Legend's Conversion of Domestic Shares</a></em> 850mn shares entering  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/517" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK)</a>'s share registry via CCASS Participant ID A00002, as opposed to Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect participant IDs A00003 &amp; A00004 respectively.</p>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056=""><em>(There are ostensibly four types of CCASS participant IDs:  brokers are denominated with "B", custodians'  "C", pledgee participants "P", and clearinghouses "A".)</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">These shares are Legend's converted unlisted domestic shares (45% of the total shares out) into H shares under the CSRC Pilot Program. In June of last year, the CSRC <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/csrc_en/newsfacts/release/201907/t20190716_359384.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clarified</a> Legend as part of the Pilot Program, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-tech-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">Avichina Industry &amp; Tech H (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-weigao-group-medical-polymer-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1465:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066 HK)</a>.</p>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">In November of last year - and discussed in greater detail in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/AFA6A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CSRC Green Lights Full Circulation Of H Shares</a></em>  - the CSRC <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/pub/newsite/zjhxwfb/xwdd/201911/t20191115_366034.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it will push forward the “full circulation” reform of H shares.</p>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">A subtle change took place last week, potentially suggesting further developments are forthcoming.</p>
</div>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056="">As always, more below the fold. </p>
<div>
<p data-v-da61000a="" data-v-294dc056=""></p>
</div>


On the 29 December 2017, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's ("CSRC") announced it would launch the H-share Full Circulation Pilot Project in which participating companies would be allowed to convert certain of their domestic shares into H shares, which would then be eligible to be listed and traded on Hong Kong's stock exchange. Up to three companies were expected to be selected in the pilot scheme.
Back in June 2018, I discussed in Legend's Conversion of Domestic Shares 850mn shares entering  Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK)'s share registry via CCASS Participant ID A00002, as opposed to Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect participant IDs A00003 &amp; A00004 respectively.
(There are ostensibly four types of CCASS participant IDs:  brokers are denominated with "B", custodians'  "C", pledgee participants "P", and clearinghouses "A".)


These shares are Legend's converted unlisted domestic shares (45% of the total shares out) into H shares under the CSRC Pilot Program. In June of last year, the CSRC clarified Legend as part of the Pilot Program, along with Avichina Industry &amp; Tech H (2357 HK) and Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066 HK).
In November of last year - and discussed in greater detail in CSRC Green Lights Full Circulation Of H Shares  - the CSRC announced it will push forward the “full circulation” reform of H shares.
A subtle change took place last week, potentially suggesting further developments are forthcoming.

As always, more below the fold. 




Full Circulation Of H Shares: Signs Of Life

China

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products, including chemical medicines, bio-chemical medicines, biological engineering medicines, chemical compound crude medicines, antibiotics, micro-ecological preparations, patent Chinese medicines, and diagnosis reagents etc.

Price Gauge
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Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (1513 HK)

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

We think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range

Arun George

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO Initiation: A Rough Patch?

The timing of the IPO is not ideal as Simcere is coming off a weak 1H20. However, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

Full Circulation Of H Shares: Signs Of Life

On the 29 December 2017, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's ("CSRC") announced it would launch the H-share Full Circulation Pilot...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Quiddity H/A Spread Monitor for the week ending 23 October 2020. Spreads widened in Consumer, narrowed in every other sector. Southbound were...

Travis Lundy

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO: Valuation Insights

We think that an attractive PEG valuation and solid cornerstone support makes Simcere tempting at the proposed pricing range

Arun George

Simcere Pharmaceutical IPO Initiation: A Rough Patch?

The timing of the IPO is not ideal as Simcere is coming off a weak 1H20. However, Simcere is putting in place the right measures to ensure that the...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy: Initial Low Established

Several equity indexes and indicators we watch are telling us an initial primary low has been established for global equities (ACWI-US). At the...

Vermilion Research

Full Circulation Of H Shares: Signs Of Life

On the 29 December 2017, the China Securities Regulatory Commission's ("CSRC") announced it would launch the H-share Full Circulation Pilot...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020