Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.


Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment</li>
<li>PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle </li>
<li>ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment
PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle 
ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

<ul>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab. </li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ. </li>
</ul>


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab. 
Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 17th. The aggregated short interest was USD27.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology, Zhen Ding Technology, Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 17th. The aggregated short interest was USD27.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology, Zhen Ding Technology, Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology, Zhen Ding Technology.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 17th): Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology

Taiwan

LOTES Co., Ltd specialize in design and manufacture of connectors, CPU Socket, Coolers and Antenna for Notebook Computer, Personal Computer, Mobile electronic device and Ditial Video.

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Lotes Co (3533 TT)

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

There could be 4 changes for Taiwan in global indices in Feb. Flow is US$76-370m and impact is 3.2x-7x ADV. Shorts are small in the adds and much...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders

TSMC receives $6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; also plans for 2nd Japanese fab; Nanya's results to shed light on DRAM post-earthquake; UMC sees rush...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 17th): Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wistron (3231 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), BizLink (3665...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

There could be 4 changes for Taiwan in global indices in Feb. Flow is US$76-370m and impact is 3.2x-7x ADV. Shorts are small in the adds and much...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

​Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders

​TSMC receives $6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; also plans for 2nd Japanese fab; Nanya's results to shed light on DRAM post-earthquake; UMC sees rush...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 17th): Wistron, TSMC, BizLink, Gigabyte Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wistron (3231 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), BizLink (3665...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

TSMC receives $6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; also plans for 2nd Japanese fab; Nanya's results to shed light on DRAM post-earthquake; UMC sees rush...