Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the higher probability of the cancellation of treasury shares by Lotte Corp, we believe that its worsening balance sheet is a greater concern. </li>
<li>There does not appear to be a rapid business turnaround of its major affiliates including Lotte Chemical. As a result, we are concerned about further credit downgrades in 2026/2027.</li>
<li>Our base case NAV valuation of Lotte Corp is market cap of 2.2 trillion won or target price of 20,918 won per share, which is 29% lower than current price.</li>
</ul>


Despite the higher probability of the cancellation of treasury shares by Lotte Corp, we believe that its worsening balance sheet is a greater concern. 
There does not appear to be a rapid business turnaround of its major affiliates including Lotte Chemical. As a result, we are concerned about further credit downgrades in 2026/2027.
Our base case NAV valuation of Lotte Corp is market cap of 2.2 trillion won or target price of 20,918 won per share, which is 29% lower than current price.


Lotte Corp: Worsening Balance Sheet Offset by Its High Treasury Shares Level

<ul>
<li>On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.</li>
<li>The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.</li>
<li>We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.</li>
</ul>


On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.
The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.
We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.


Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

<ul>
<li>In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.</li>
<li>We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. </li>
<li>These 15 companies' share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.</li>
</ul>


In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. 
These 15 companies' share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.


No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol, Lig Nex1.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol, Lig Nex1.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> on Tuesday closed at 347.17,  <strong>entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models</strong>. </li>
<li>Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote,<strong> our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17,  entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models. 
Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.



KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

South Korea

Lotte Shopping Co., Ltd. operates department stores and discount stores in South Korea.  The Company retails clothing, household goods, foods and other items through several branches.  Lotte Shopping also operates supermarkets and movie theaters.

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Lotte Shopping Co (023530 KS)

Lotte Corp: Worsening Balance Sheet Offset by Its High Treasury Shares Level

Despite the higher probability of the cancellation of treasury shares by Lotte Corp, we believe that its worsening balance sheet is a greater concern.

Douglas Kim

Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.

Douglas Kim

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South...

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe, Hanwha Ind Sol

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in SK Hynix, Kakao, Samsung Electronics, Hybe,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

The KOSPI 200 INDEX is in overbought territory ahead of SK's early presidential election on June 3rd, this insight discusses tactical...

Nico Rosti

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