Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate).

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on CPAXT with an Outperform rating.</li><li>The 2024E fair value has increased 34% YoY given 2024E EPS growth of 21% (Bt0.78 in 2023E to Bt0.95 in 2024E) and a decline in the risk-free return by 0.85%.</li><li>Three-year core profit is expected to achieve a 17% CAGR from Bt8.3bn in 2023E to Bt13.1bn in 20206E, fueled by sales growth, an increasing margin, and lower interest expenses.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on CPAXT with an Outperform rating.The 2024E fair value has increased 34% YoY given 2024E EPS growth of 21% (Bt0.78 in 2023E to Bt0.95 in 2024E) and a decline in the risk-free return by 0.85%.Three-year core profit is expected to achieve a 17% CAGR from Bt8.3bn in 2023E to Bt13.1bn in 20206E, fueled by sales growth, an increasing margin, and lower interest expenses.

CP AXTRA (CPAXT): Strong Earnings Growth at a 17% CAGR

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2022 index changes for the STOXX Benchmark Indices were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be 16 ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and there will be 5 ADDs and 6 DELs for the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of Rebal events.</li>
</ul>


The September 2022 index changes for the STOXX Benchmark Indices were announced yesterday. 
There will be 16 ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and there will be 5 ADDs and 6 DELs for the EURO STOXX Index.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of Rebal events.


STOXX Europe 600 Sep 2022 Rebal: ADDs Could Outperform DELs for the Next Few Weeks

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on current rankings, there could be around 11 ADDs/DELs in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The completion of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avast-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33815:1" rel="noopener">Avast PLC (AVST LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meggitt-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22044:1" rel="noopener">Meggitt PLC (MGGT LN)</a> deals could result in intra-review changes in September 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the September 2022 Rebalance.
Based on current rankings, there could be around 11 ADDs/DELs in the September 2022 Rebalance.
The completion of the Avast PLC (AVST LN) and Meggitt PLC (MGGT LN) deals could result in intra-review changes in September 2022.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: 11 ADDs/DELs, Sandvik-Alleima, and More

Belgium

Lotus Bakeries produces cakes and industrial pastry, waffles and galettes, and caramelized biscuits.  The Company's brands are sold mainly in Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria, the Czech Republic, the United States, and Asia.  Lotus distributes its products through retail, catering, and food services.

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Lotus Bakeries (LOTB BB)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

CP AXTRA (CPAXT): Strong Earnings Growth at a 17% CAGR

We initiate our coverage on CPAXT with an Outperform rating. The 2024E fair value has increased 34% YoY given 2024E EPS growth of 21% (Bt0.78 in...

Krungthai XSpring

STOXX Europe 600 Sep 2022 Rebal: ADDs Could Outperform DELs for the Next Few Weeks

The impacts and flow sizes are not very significant but the conventional LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs trade has historically delivered positive returns in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: 11 ADDs/DELs, Sandvik-Alleima, and More

I see 11 ADDs/DELs based on current numbers but there are several other names that are only a small price change away from becoming ADDs/DELs

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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