Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Performance between US Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.</li>
<li>The difference in performance is down to their vastly different portfolios, with Value funds heavily reliant on Financials and Health Care stocks and Aggressive Growth funds heavily exposed to Tech and Communication Services. </li>
<li>However, there is some overlap.  There are a number of stocks that appear to offer something for both Value and Growth investors, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lowe-s-companies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4156:1" rel="noopener">Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schwab-charles-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13610:1" rel="noopener">Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US)</a> </li>
<li>In this analysis, we explore a portfolio that combines stocks that are owned by more than 10% of both the Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds in our analysis.  </li>
</ul>


Performance between US Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.
The difference in performance is down to their vastly different portfolios, with Value funds heavily reliant on Financials and Health Care stocks and Aggressive Growth funds heavily exposed to Tech and Communication Services. 
However, there is some overlap.  There are a number of stocks that appear to offer something for both Value and Growth investors, including Visa Inc Class A Shares (V US), Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW US) and Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US) 
In this analysis, we explore a portfolio that combines stocks that are owned by more than 10% of both the Value funds and Aggressive Growth funds in our analysis.  


US Value Vs Growth:  The Goldilocks Portfolio

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the negatives. With positive new developments and essentially nothing new to be worried about, our view remains bullish. Buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: CD-46 Retailers, Home Improvement, CD-30 Internet Retailers, CD-55 Lawn &amp; Garden, and MA-27 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap.

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the negatives. With positive new developments and essentially nothing new to be worried about, our view remains bullish. Buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: CD-46 Retailers, Home Improvement, CD-30 Internet Retailers, CD-55 Lawn &amp; Garden, and MA-27 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

United States

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is a home improvement retailer that distributes building materials and supplies through stores in the United States. The Company offers a complete line of products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and property maintenance.

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Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW US)

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

US Value Vs Growth: The Goldilocks Portfolio

Performance between US Value funds andtwo groups has diverged over the last decade, with 2020 seeing an acceleration of the trend.

Steven Holden

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buy The Dips

New developments outlined in today’s report are of the bullish variety. The way we see it, the positives continue to heavily outweigh the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed...

Vermilion Research

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